Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla Statistics & Analysis

Torre del Mar

Oct 04, 2026 - 10:00

0 1.33

1 1.27

xG Accuracy: 64%

Arenas Armilla

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Torre del Mar Arenas Armilla ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11679938

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Arenas Armilla win · Torre del Mar 0–1 Arenas Armilla

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 9
Fixture: Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Torre del Mar 1.33 — Arenas Armilla 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 9 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Melilla	5	5	0	0	15
2	Marbelli	6	4	1	1	13
3	Arenas Armilla	5	3	2	0	11
4	Motril	5	3	2	0	11
5	Málaga II	5	3	1	1	10
6	Almería B	5	3	1	1	10
7	UD San Pedro	5	3	0	2	9
8	Granada B	5	2	1	2	7
9	Alhaurino	6	2	1	3	7
10	Churriana Vega	5	2	0	3	6
11	Atlético Porcuna	5	2	0	3	6
12	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	5	1	2	2	5
13	Huétor Vega	5	1	2	2	5
14	Torre del Mar	5	1	1	3	4
15	Atlético de Marbella	5	1	1	3	4
16	Cantoria	5	0	3	2	3
17	Mancha Real	5	0	2	3	2
18	Malaga City	5	0	0	5	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Melilla	5	11	3	+8	15
2	Málaga II	5	11	4	+7	10
3	Almería B	5	9	3	+6	10
4	Churriana Vega	5	9	9	0	6
5	Arenas Armilla	5	8	4	+4	11
6	Motril	5	8	4	+4	11
7	Marbelli	6	8	5	+3	13
8	Granada B	5	7	4	+3	7
9	UD San Pedro	5	7	8	-1	9
10	Huétor Vega	5	7	9	-2	5
11	Atlético Porcuna	5	6	14	-8	6
12	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	5	5	6	-1	5
13	Alhaurino	6	5	7	-2	7
14	Cantoria	5	4	7	-3	3
15	Torre del Mar	5	3	5	-2	4
16	Malaga City	5	3	11	-8	0
17	Atlético de Marbella	5	2	5	-3	4
18	Mancha Real	5	2	7	-5	2