Statistiche / Calcio / Spagna. Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 9 / Malaga City vs Marbelli

Malaga City vs Marbelli Statistics & Analysis

Malaga City Malaga City
Oct 04, 2026 - 16:15
0 1.20
1 1.40
xG Accuracy: 64%
Marbelli Marbelli
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Marbelli Marbelli ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11679902

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Marbelli win · Malaga City 0–1 Marbelli
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 9
  • Fixture: Malaga City vs Marbelli
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Malaga City 1.2 — Marbelli 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 9 Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 9 — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Melilla 4 4 0 0 12
2 Málaga II 5 3 1 1 10
3 Marbelli 4 3 1 0 10
4 Almería B 4 3 0 1 9
5 UD San Pedro 4 3 0 1 9
6 Arenas Armilla 4 2 2 0 8
7 Motril 4 2 2 0 8
8 Granada B 5 2 1 2 7
9 Atlético Porcuna 4 2 0 2 6
10 Torre del Mar 4 1 1 2 4
11 Atlético de Marbella 4 1 1 2 4
12 Alhaurino 4 1 1 2 4
13 Churriana Vega 4 1 0 3 3
14 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 4 0 2 2 2
15 Mancha Real 4 0 2 2 2
16 Cantoria 4 0 2 2 2
17 Huétor Vega 4 0 2 2 2
18 Malaga City 4 0 0 4 0
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Málaga II 5 11 4 +7 10
2 Melilla 4 9 2 +7 12
3 Almería B 4 8 2 +6 9
4 Marbelli 4 7 3 +4 10
5 Arenas Armilla 4 7 4 +3 8
6 Granada B 5 7 4 +3 7
7 Churriana Vega 4 6 7 -1 3
8 Motril 4 5 2 +3 8
9 UD San Pedro 4 5 5 0 9
10 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 4 4 6 -2 2
11 Huétor Vega 4 4 9 -5 2
12 Atlético Porcuna 4 4 11 -7 6
13 Torre del Mar 4 3 4 -1 4
14 Cantoria 4 3 6 -3 2
15 Malaga City 4 3 10 -7 0
16 Atlético de Marbella 4 2 4 -2 4
17 Mancha Real 4 2 4 -2 2
18 Alhaurino 4 2 5 -3 4
Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 9 Spagna. Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 9 Pronostici