Leganés B vs Galapagar Statistics & Analysis

Leganés B

Oct 11, 2026 - 10:00

2 1.36

3 1.24

xG Accuracy: 52%

Galapagar

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Leganés B Galapagar ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13231052

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Galapagar win · Leganés B 2–3 Galapagar

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 7
Fixture: Leganés B vs Galapagar
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Leganés B 1.36 — Galapagar 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 7 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Colonia Moscardó	6	3	3	0	12
2	Cala Pozuelo	6	4	0	2	12
3	Trival Valderas	5	3	2	0	11
4	Móstoles	5	3	2	0	11
5	Las Rozas	5	3	1	1	10
6	Galapagar	5	2	2	1	8
7	RC Alcobendas	6	2	2	2	8
8	Fuenlabrada	5	2	2	1	8
9	Leganés B	5	2	1	2	7
10	Torrejón	5	2	0	3	6
11	Unión Adarve	5	1	3	1	6
12	Pozuelo de Alarcón	5	1	3	1	6
13	Parla Escuela	5	1	2	2	5
14	Alcobendas Sport	5	1	2	2	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	1	2	3	5
16	San Sebastián de los Reyes B	5	1	0	4	3
17	Villanueva del Pardillo	5	1	0	4	3
18	Rayo Vallecano II	5	0	1	4	1

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Colonia Moscardó	6	15	6	+9	12
2	RC Alcobendas	6	12	11	+1	8
3	Las Rozas	5	11	6	+5	10
4	Cala Pozuelo	6	10	8	+2	12
5	Galapagar	5	10	8	+2	8
6	Real Aranjuez	6	10	14	-4	5
7	Leganés B	5	9	6	+3	7
8	Trival Valderas	5	8	4	+4	11
9	Fuenlabrada	5	7	6	+1	8
10	Parla Escuela	5	7	8	-1	5
11	Pozuelo de Alarcón	5	7	10	-3	6
12	San Sebastián de los Reyes B	5	7	13	-6	3
13	Móstoles	5	6	2	+4	11
14	Torrejón	5	6	5	+1	6
15	Unión Adarve	5	6	8	-2	6
16	Rayo Vallecano II	5	6	13	-7	1
17	Villanueva del Pardillo	5	5	13	-8	3
18	Alcobendas Sport	5	4	5	-1	5