Fuenlabrada vs Móstoles Statistics & Analysis

Fuenlabrada

Sep 13, 2026 - 09:30

1 1.36

3 1.24

xG Accuracy: 56%

Móstoles

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Fuenlabrada Móstoles ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7452372

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Móstoles win · Fuenlabrada 1–3 Móstoles

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 7
Fixture: Fuenlabrada vs Móstoles
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Fuenlabrada 1.36 — Móstoles 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 7 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Trival Valderas	4	2	2	0	8
2	Colonia Moscardó	3	2	1	0	7
3	Las Rozas	3	2	1	0	7
4	Móstoles	3	2	1	0	7
5	Leganés B	4	2	0	2	6
6	Cala Pozuelo	4	2	0	2	6
7	Galapagar	3	1	2	0	5
8	RC Alcobendas	3	1	2	0	5
9	Unión Adarve	3	1	2	0	5
10	Parla Escuela	3	1	1	1	4
11	Fuenlabrada	3	1	1	1	4
12	Pozuelo de Alarcón	3	0	3	0	3
13	Torrejón	3	1	0	2	3
14	San Sebastián de los Reyes B	3	1	0	2	3
15	Alcobendas Sport	3	0	2	1	2
16	Rayo Vallecano II	3	0	1	2	1
17	Real Aranjuez	4	0	1	3	1
18	Villanueva del Pardillo	3	0	0	3	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Leganés B	4	8	5	+3	6
2	Colonia Moscardó	3	7	2	+5	7
3	Las Rozas	3	7	4	+3	7
4	Galapagar	3	7	4	+3	5
5	RC Alcobendas	3	7	4	+3	5
6	Trival Valderas	4	6	3	+3	8
7	Parla Escuela	3	5	5	0	4
8	Cala Pozuelo	4	5	6	-1	6
9	Móstoles	3	4	1	+3	7
10	Unión Adarve	3	4	2	+2	5
11	Fuenlabrada	3	4	4	0	4
12	Real Aranjuez	4	4	10	-6	1
13	Pozuelo de Alarcón	3	3	3	0	3
14	Rayo Vallecano II	3	3	7	-4	1
15	Torrejón	3	2	4	-2	3
16	San Sebastián de los Reyes B	3	2	5	-3	3
17	Villanueva del Pardillo	3	2	10	-8	0
18	Alcobendas Sport	3	1	2	-1	2