Statistiche / Calcio / Spagna. Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 4 / Leioa vs Eibar C

Leioa vs Eibar C Statistics & Analysis

Leioa Leioa
Sep 26, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 77%
Eibar C Eibar C
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Leioa Leioa ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10106068

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Leioa win · Leioa 2–1 Eibar C
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 4
  • Fixture: Leioa vs Eibar C
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Leioa 1.33 — Eibar C 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 4 Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 4 — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Aurrerá Vitoria 4 3 1 0 10
2 Derio 4 2 2 0 8
3 Touring 4 2 1 1 7
4 Leioa 4 1 3 0 6
5 Erandio 4 2 0 2 6
6 Eibar C 4 1 2 1 5
7 Durango 4 1 2 1 5
8 Aretxabaleta 4 1 2 1 5
9 Sodupe 4 1 2 1 5
10 Deportivo Alavés C 4 1 1 2 4
11 Real Sociedad III 3 1 1 1 4
12 Pasaia KE 3 1 1 1 4
13 R. Union B 3 1 1 1 4
14 Beasain 4 1 1 2 4
15 Lagun Onak 3 1 1 1 4
16 Santurtzi 3 1 0 2 3
17 San Ignacio 3 0 2 1 2
18 Amurrio Club 4 0 1 3 1
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Aurrerá Vitoria 4 8 3 +5 10
2 Leioa 4 7 6 +1 6
3 Eibar C 4 6 5 +1 5
4 Deportivo Alavés C 4 6 5 +1 4
5 Durango 4 6 6 0 5
6 Derio 4 5 2 +3 8
7 Touring 4 5 3 +2 7
8 Erandio 4 5 4 +1 6
9 Real Sociedad III 3 4 3 +1 4
10 Pasaia KE 3 4 5 -1 4
11 R. Union B 3 4 5 -1 4
12 San Ignacio 3 4 5 -1 2
13 Sodupe 4 3 4 -1 5
14 Beasain 4 3 4 -1 4
15 Aretxabaleta 4 2 2 0 5
16 Lagun Onak 3 2 3 -1 4
17 Santurtzi 3 2 5 -3 3
18 Amurrio Club 4 1 7 -6 1
Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 4 Spagna. Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 4 Pronostici