Statistiche / Calcio / Spagna. Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 3 / Tropezón vs Selaya

Tropezón vs Selaya Statistics & Analysis

Tropezón Tropezón
Sep 12, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.42
0 1.18
xG Accuracy: 47%
Selaya Selaya
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Tropezón Tropezón ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7466175

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tropezón win · Tropezón 3–0 Selaya
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 3
  • Fixture: Tropezón vs Selaya
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Tropezón 1.42 — Selaya 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 3 Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 3 — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Bezana 3 3 0 0 9
2 Vimenor 3 3 0 0 9
3 Tropezón 3 3 0 0 9
4 Revilla 3 2 1 0 7
5 Torina 3 2 1 0 7
6 Laredo 3 2 0 1 6
7 Cayón 3 2 0 1 6
8 Castro 3 1 2 0 5
9 Sámano 3 1 1 1 4
10 Velarde 3 1 1 1 4
11 Selaya 3 1 1 1 4
12 Atlético Mineros 3 1 0 2 3
13 Naval Reinosa 3 0 1 2 1
14 Barquereño 3 0 1 2 1
15 Escobedo 3 0 1 2 1
16 Atlético Albericia 3 0 0 3 0
17 Guarnizo 3 0 0 3 0
18 Solares 3 0 0 3 0
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Revilla 3 8 2 +6 7
2 Bezana 3 8 3 +5 9
3 Torina 3 7 1 +6 7
4 Vimenor 3 7 2 +5 9
5 Tropezón 3 7 2 +5 9
6 Sámano 3 7 5 +2 4
7 Laredo 3 5 2 +3 6
8 Castro 3 4 2 +2 5
9 Cayón 3 3 1 +2 6
10 Velarde 3 2 4 -2 4
11 Naval Reinosa 3 2 6 -4 1
12 Barquereño 3 2 6 -4 1
13 Atlético Mineros 3 2 7 -5 3
14 Guarnizo 3 2 7 -5 0
15 Selaya 3 1 3 -2 4
16 Atlético Albericia 3 1 5 -4 0
17 Escobedo 3 1 6 -5 1
18 Solares 3 1 6 -5 0
Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 3 Spagna. Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 3 Pronostici