Statistiche / Calcio / Spagna. Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 1 / Celta de Vigo III vs Lalin

Celta de Vigo III vs Lalin Statistics & Analysis

Celta de Vigo III Celta de Vigo III
Sep 06, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.39
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 72%
⚽
Lalin
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Celta de Vigo III Lalin ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6368138

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lalin win · Celta de Vigo III 1–2 Lalin
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 1
  • Fixture: Celta de Vigo III vs Lalin
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Celta de Vigo III 1.39 — Lalin 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 1 Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 1 — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Boiro 3 3 0 0 9
2 Sarriana 4 3 0 1 9
3 Alondras 4 3 0 1 9
4 Villalbés 3 2 1 0 7
5 Antela 4 2 1 1 7
6 Barco 3 2 0 1 6
7 Lalin 3 2 0 1 6
8 Atlético Arteixo 4 1 2 1 5
9 Pontevedra B 3 1 1 1 4
10 Estradense 3 1 1 1 4
11 Portonovo SD 3 1 1 1 4
12 Celta de Vigo III 4 1 1 2 4
13 Silva SD 3 1 1 1 4
14 Arenteiro 3 1 0 2 3
15 Somozas 4 0 2 2 2
16 Céltiga 3 0 1 2 1
17 Coruña 3 0 0 3 0
18 Viveiro 3 0 0 3 0
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Alondras 4 10 8 +2 9
2 Sarriana 4 8 5 +3 9
3 Pontevedra B 3 8 5 +3 4
4 Boiro 3 7 2 +5 9
5 Villalbés 3 6 4 +2 7
6 Estradense 3 5 5 0 4
7 Celta de Vigo III 4 5 6 -1 4
8 Coruña 3 5 9 -4 0
9 Barco 3 4 3 +1 6
10 Atlético Arteixo 4 4 5 -1 5
11 Lalin 3 3 2 +1 6
12 Portonovo SD 3 3 3 0 4
13 Silva SD 3 3 4 -1 4
14 Céltiga 3 3 6 -3 1
15 Antela 4 2 2 0 7
16 Arenteiro 3 2 3 -1 3
17 Somozas 4 1 3 -2 2
18 Viveiro 3 0 4 -4 0