Statistiche / Calcio / Svizzera. 1. Liga Classic - Gruppo 3 / Mendrisio vs FC Freienbach

Mendrisio vs FC Freienbach Statistics & Analysis

Mendrisio Mendrisio
Sep 06, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 59%
FC Freienbach FC Freienbach
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Mendrisio Mendrisio ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6362217

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mendrisio win · Mendrisio 2–0 FC Freienbach
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Liga Classic - Gruppo 3
  • Fixture: Mendrisio vs FC Freienbach
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Mendrisio 1.33 — FC Freienbach 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga Classic - Gruppo 3 1. Liga Classic - Gruppo 3 — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Tuggen 7 6 0 1 18
2 Baden 7 5 1 1 16
3 Thalwil 7 4 2 1 14
4 Kosova 7 3 3 1 12
5 Taverne 7 3 2 2 11
6 Collina d'Oro 7 3 2 2 11
7 St. Gallen II 6 3 1 2 10
8 Dietikon 7 3 1 3 10
9 Winterthur II 7 3 0 4 9
10 Gossau 7 2 2 3 8
11 Eschen / Mauren 7 2 1 4 7
12 Mendrisio 6 1 3 2 6
13 FC Freienbach 7 1 3 3 6
14 Wettswil-Bonstetten 7 1 2 4 5
15 Widnau 7 1 2 4 5
16 Locarno 7 0 3 4 3
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Tuggen 7 19 8 +11 18
2 Baden 7 16 8 +8 16
3 Taverne 7 16 11 +5 11
4 Kosova 7 14 11 +3 12
5 Thalwil 7 13 6 +7 14
6 St. Gallen II 6 13 14 -1 10
7 Dietikon 7 11 12 -1 10
8 FC Freienbach 7 10 14 -4 6
9 Winterthur II 7 9 9 0 9
10 Mendrisio 6 8 8 0 6
11 Gossau 7 8 11 -3 8
12 Wettswil-Bonstetten 7 8 13 -5 5
13 Eschen / Mauren 7 8 15 -7 7
14 Collina d'Oro 7 7 7 0 11
15 Locarno 7 6 10 -4 3
16 Widnau 7 3 12 -9 5
1. Liga Classic - Gruppo 3 Svizzera. 1. Liga Classic - Gruppo 3 Pronostici