Statistiche / Calcio / Portogallo. Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Gruppo A / Celoricense vs Tirsense

Celoricense vs Tirsense Statistics & Analysis

Celoricense Celoricense
Sep 06, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 77%
Tirsense Tirsense
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Celoricense Celoricense ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6367567

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Celoricense win · Celoricense 2–1 Tirsense
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Gruppo A
  • Fixture: Celoricense vs Tirsense
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Celoricense 1.33 — Tirsense 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Gruppo A Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Gruppo A — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Bragança 4 3 1 0 10
2 Tirsense 4 3 0 1 9
3 Chaves II 4 3 0 1 9
4 SC Braga B 4 2 2 0 8
5 Vila Meã 4 2 1 1 7
6 Os Limianos 3 2 1 0 7
7 Celoricense 4 2 1 1 7
8 Montalegre 4 1 3 0 6
9 Rebordosa 3 1 0 2 3
10 Brito 4 1 0 3 3
11 Ponte da Barca 4 1 0 3 3
12 Maria da Fonte 4 1 0 3 3
13 Maia Lidador 4 0 1 3 1
14 Vinhais 4 0 0 4 0
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 SC Braga B 4 8 3 +5 8
2 Bragança 4 7 2 +5 10
3 Tirsense 4 7 2 +5 9
4 Vila Meã 4 7 3 +4 7
5 Os Limianos 3 7 4 +3 7
6 Montalegre 4 5 3 +2 6
7 Chaves II 4 5 4 +1 9
8 Brito 4 4 8 -4 3
9 Ponte da Barca 4 4 8 -4 3
10 Celoricense 4 3 2 +1 7
11 Maia Lidador 4 2 5 -3 1
12 Maria da Fonte 4 2 7 -5 3
13 Rebordosa 3 1 2 -1 3
14 Vinhais 4 1 10 -9 0