Statistiche / Calcio / Portogallo. Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Gruppo A / Celoricense vs Montalegre

Celoricense vs Montalegre Statistics & Analysis

Celoricense Celoricense
Aug 16, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 49%
Montalegre Montalegre
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Celoricense Pareggio ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3611360

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Celoricense 0–0 Montalegre
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Gruppo A
  • Fixture: Celoricense vs Montalegre
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Celoricense 1.38 — Montalegre 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Gruppo A Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Gruppo A — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Os Limianos 3 2 1 0 7
2 Bragança 3 2 1 0 7
3 Celoricense 3 2 1 0 7
4 Tirsense 3 2 0 1 6
5 Chaves II 3 2 0 1 6
6 Montalegre 3 1 2 0 5
7 SC Braga B 3 1 2 0 5
8 Vila Meã 3 1 1 1 4
9 Ponte da Barca 3 1 0 2 3
10 Maria da Fonte 3 1 0 2 3
11 Rebordosa 3 1 0 2 3
12 Brito 3 1 0 2 3
13 Maia Lidador 3 0 0 3 0
14 Vinhais 3 0 0 3 0
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Os Limianos 3 7 4 +3 7
2 Tirsense 3 5 2 +3 6
3 Bragança 3 4 2 +2 7
4 Montalegre 3 4 2 +2 5
5 SC Braga B 3 4 3 +1 5
6 Chaves II 3 4 4 0 6
7 Ponte da Barca 3 4 5 -1 3
8 Brito 3 4 6 -2 3
9 Celoricense 3 3 1 +2 7
10 Vila Meã 3 3 3 0 4
11 Maria da Fonte 3 2 3 -1 3
12 Rebordosa 3 1 2 -1 3
13 Maia Lidador 3 1 4 -3 0
14 Vinhais 3 1 6 -5 0