Statistiche / Calcio / Brasile. Carioca B2 / Rio de Janeiro vs Barra Mansa

Rio de Janeiro vs Barra Mansa Statistics & Analysis

Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro
Oct 01, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.20
0 1.40
xG Accuracy: 55%
Barra Mansa Barra Mansa
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Barra Mansa Rio de Janeiro ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10757275

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rio de Janeiro win · Rio de Janeiro 2–0 Barra Mansa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Carioca B2
  • Fixture: Rio de Janeiro vs Barra Mansa
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-01 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Rio de Janeiro 1.2 — Barra Mansa 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca B2 Carioca B2 — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Friburguense 6 4 2 0 14
2 Cardoso Moreira 6 4 0 2 12
3 Santa Cruz RJ 6 4 0 2 12
4 Paduano 6 3 2 1 11
5 Serra Macaense 6 3 1 2 10
6 7 de Abril 6 3 1 2 10
7 SE Belford Roxo 6 2 3 1 9
8 Rio de Janeiro 6 2 1 3 7
9 Campos AA 6 1 3 2 6
10 Barra Mansa 6 1 3 2 6
11 Búzios 6 1 0 5 3
12 Paraty 6 0 0 6 0
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 SE Belford Roxo 6 12 6 +6 9
2 Friburguense 6 11 4 +7 14
3 Serra Macaense 6 11 8 +3 10
4 7 de Abril 6 10 8 +2 10
5 Cardoso Moreira 6 9 5 +4 12
6 Santa Cruz RJ 6 9 5 +4 12
7 Paduano 6 9 5 +4 11
8 Campos AA 6 8 10 -2 6
9 Rio de Janeiro 6 7 7 0 7
10 Barra Mansa 6 6 10 -4 6
11 Búzios 6 4 15 -11 3
12 Paraty 6 4 17 -13 0
Carioca B2 Brasile. Carioca B2 Pronostici