7 de Abril vs Friburguense Statistics & Analysis

7 de Abril

Oct 02, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.28

2 1.32

xG Accuracy: 77%

Friburguense

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Friburguense Friburguense ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10978967

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Friburguense win · 7 de Abril 1–2 Friburguense

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Carioca B2
Fixture: 7 de Abril vs Friburguense
Kickoff: 2026-10-02 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): 7 de Abril 1.28 — Friburguense 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Carioca B2 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Friburguense	6	4	2	0	14
2	Cardoso Moreira	6	4	0	2	12
3	Santa Cruz RJ	6	4	0	2	12
4	Paduano	6	3	2	1	11
5	Serra Macaense	6	3	1	2	10
6	7 de Abril	6	3	1	2	10
7	SE Belford Roxo	6	2	3	1	9
8	Rio de Janeiro	6	2	1	3	7
9	Campos AA	6	1	3	2	6
10	Barra Mansa	6	1	3	2	6
11	Búzios	6	1	0	5	3
12	Paraty	6	0	0	6	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	SE Belford Roxo	6	12	6	+6	9
2	Friburguense	6	11	4	+7	14
3	Serra Macaense	6	11	8	+3	10
4	7 de Abril	6	10	8	+2	10
5	Cardoso Moreira	6	9	5	+4	12
6	Santa Cruz RJ	6	9	5	+4	12
7	Paduano	6	9	5	+4	11
8	Campos AA	6	8	10	-2	6
9	Rio de Janeiro	6	7	7	0	7
10	Barra Mansa	6	6	10	-4	6
11	Búzios	6	4	15	-11	3
12	Paraty	6	4	17	-13	0