Búzios vs Serra Macaense Statistics & Analysis

Búzios

Sep 20, 2026 - 17:45

0 1.30

2 1.30

xG Accuracy: 58%

Serra Macaense

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Búzios Serra Macaense ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8694386

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Serra Macaense win · Búzios 0–2 Serra Macaense

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Carioca B2
Fixture: Búzios vs Serra Macaense
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 17:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Búzios 1.3 — Serra Macaense 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Carioca B2 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Cardoso Moreira	3	3	0	0	9
2	Friburguense	3	2	1	0	7
3	Santa Cruz RJ	3	2	0	1	6
4	Paduano	3	2	0	1	6
5	SE Belford Roxo	3	1	2	0	5
6	Campos AA	3	1	2	0	5
7	7 de Abril	3	1	1	1	4
8	Rio de Janeiro	3	1	1	1	4
9	Barra Mansa	3	0	2	1	2
10	Serra Macaense	3	0	1	2	1
11	Paraty	3	0	0	3	0
12	Búzios	3	0	0	3	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	SE Belford Roxo	3	6	2	+4	5
2	Campos AA	3	6	5	+1	5
3	7 de Abril	3	6	5	+1	4
4	Cardoso Moreira	3	5	0	+5	9
5	Friburguense	3	5	1	+4	7
6	Santa Cruz RJ	3	5	1	+4	6
7	Paduano	3	3	2	+1	6
8	Rio de Janeiro	3	3	2	+1	4
9	Serra Macaense	3	3	5	-2	1
10	Barra Mansa	3	3	6	-3	2
11	Paraty	3	2	10	-8	0
12	Búzios	3	1	9	-8	0