Serra Macaense vs Paduano Statistics & Analysis

Serra Macaense

Sep 13, 2026 - 17:45

1 1.34

2 1.26

xG Accuracy: 74%

Paduano

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Serra Macaense Paduano ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7456729

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Paduano win · Serra Macaense 1–2 Paduano

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Carioca B2
Fixture: Serra Macaense vs Paduano
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 17:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Serra Macaense 1.34 — Paduano 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Carioca B2 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Cardoso Moreira	4	4	0	0	12
2	Friburguense	4	3	1	0	10
3	Santa Cruz RJ	4	3	0	1	9
4	7 de Abril	4	2	1	1	7
5	Paduano	4	2	1	1	7
6	SE Belford Roxo	4	1	2	1	5
7	Campos AA	4	1	2	1	5
8	Serra Macaense	4	1	1	2	4
9	Rio de Janeiro	4	1	1	2	4
10	Barra Mansa	4	0	3	1	3
11	Paraty	4	0	0	4	0
12	Búzios	4	0	0	4	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Santa Cruz RJ	4	8	2	+6	9
2	Cardoso Moreira	4	7	1	+6	12
3	Friburguense	4	7	1	+6	10
4	SE Belford Roxo	4	7	4	+3	5
5	7 de Abril	4	7	5	+2	7
6	Serra Macaense	4	6	5	+1	4
7	Campos AA	4	6	7	-1	5
8	Paduano	4	5	4	+1	7
9	Barra Mansa	4	5	8	-3	3
10	Rio de Janeiro	4	4	5	-1	4
11	Paraty	4	2	11	-9	0
12	Búzios	4	1	12	-11	0