Barra Mansa vs 7 de Abril Statistics & Analysis

Barra Mansa

Sep 14, 2026 - 17:45

1 1.31

4 1.29

xG Accuracy: 44%

7 de Abril

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Barra Mansa 7 de Abril ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7573167

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result 7 de Abril win · Barra Mansa 1–4 7 de Abril

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Carioca B2
Fixture: Barra Mansa vs 7 de Abril
Kickoff: 2026-09-14 17:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Barra Mansa 1.31 — 7 de Abril 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Carioca B2 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Cardoso Moreira	3	3	0	0	9
2	Friburguense	3	2	1	0	7
3	Santa Cruz RJ	3	2	0	1	6
4	Paduano	3	2	0	1	6
5	SE Belford Roxo	3	1	2	0	5
6	Campos AA	3	1	2	0	5
7	Rio de Janeiro	3	1	1	1	4
8	Barra Mansa	2	0	2	0	2
9	Serra Macaense	3	0	1	2	1
10	7 de Abril	2	0	1	1	1
11	Paraty	3	0	0	3	0
12	Búzios	3	0	0	3	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	SE Belford Roxo	3	6	2	+4	5
2	Campos AA	3	6	5	+1	5
3	Cardoso Moreira	3	5	0	+5	9
4	Friburguense	3	5	1	+4	7
5	Santa Cruz RJ	3	5	1	+4	6
6	Paduano	3	3	2	+1	6
7	Rio de Janeiro	3	3	2	+1	4
8	Serra Macaense	3	3	5	-2	1
9	Barra Mansa	2	2	2	0	2
10	7 de Abril	2	2	4	-2	1
11	Paraty	3	2	10	-8	0
12	Búzios	3	1	9	-8	0