Septemvri Simitli vs Natsional Sofia Statistics & Analysis

Septemvri Simitli

Aug 29, 2026 - 15:00

3 1.36

3 1.24

xG Accuracy: 39%

Natsional Sofia

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Septemvri Simitli Pareggio ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 03:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5151081

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Septemvri Simitli 3–3 Natsional Sofia

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Terza Lega Bulgara - Sudovest
Fixture: Septemvri Simitli vs Natsional Sofia
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Septemvri Simitli 1.36 — Natsional Sofia 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Terza Lega Bulgara - Sudovest — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Oborishte	8	5	3	0	18
2	Minyor Pernik	8	5	2	1	17
3	Strumska Slava	8	5	1	2	16
4	Bansko	8	5	1	2	16
5	Botev Ihtiman	8	5	0	3	15
6	Kostinbrod	8	5	0	3	15
7	Septemvri Sofia II	7	4	1	2	13
8	Belasitsa	8	3	1	4	10
9	Slivnishki Geroy	8	3	1	4	10
10	Balkan Botevgrad	8	3	1	4	10
11	Slavia Sofia II	8	3	0	5	9
12	Septemvri Simitli	8	2	3	3	9
13	CSKA Sofia III	7	1	5	1	8
14	Levski Sofia II	8	2	2	4	8
15	Kyustendil	8	2	2	4	8
16	Pirin Razlog	8	2	1	5	7
17	Natsional Sofia	8	1	3	4	6
18	Chavdar Etropole	8	1	1	6	4

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Oborishte	8	17	7	+10	18
2	Strumska Slava	8	17	9	+8	16
3	Bansko	8	17	13	+4	16
4	Minyor Pernik	8	15	5	+10	17
5	Botev Ihtiman	8	14	10	+4	15
6	Belasitsa	8	14	16	-2	10
7	Slivnishki Geroy	8	12	15	-3	10
8	Septemvri Sofia II	7	11	7	+4	13
9	Kostinbrod	8	11	8	+3	15
10	Septemvri Simitli	8	11	14	-3	9
11	Natsional Sofia	8	11	16	-5	6
12	Levski Sofia II	8	10	11	-1	8
13	Slavia Sofia II	8	9	9	0	9
14	Chavdar Etropole	8	9	22	-13	4
15	Kyustendil	8	8	11	-3	8
16	Pirin Razlog	8	7	17	-10	7
17	CSKA Sofia III	7	6	6	0	8
18	Balkan Botevgrad	8	6	9	-3	10