Araz vs Kapaz Statistics & Analysis

Araz

Oct 09, 2026 - 12:00

0 1.41

2 1.19

xG Accuracy: 54%

Kapaz

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Araz Kapaz ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-2 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12682265

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Kapaz win · Araz 0–2 Kapaz

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premyer Liqası
Fixture: Araz vs Kapaz
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): Araz 1.41 — Kapaz 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
Model: 45.8% · Implied: 41.3% · Probability edge: +4.5 pts · Est. EV: +9.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

Esplora Altri Contenuti di Previsioni

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Torna alle Statistiche

Premyer Liqası — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Neftchi Baku	6	5	0	1	15
2	Sabah FA	5	5	0	0	15
3	Qarabag	5	4	1	0	13
4	Turan	6	3	2	1	11
5	Zira	6	3	1	2	10
6	Keshla FC	6	2	3	1	9
7	Kapaz	5	2	1	2	7
8	Qabala	6	1	1	4	4
9	Mil-Muğan	6	1	1	4	4
10	Safa Baku	6	1	0	5	3
11	Sumqayıt	5	0	2	3	2
12	Araz	6	0	2	4	2

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Neftchi Baku	6	18	5	+13	15
2	Sabah FA	5	14	1	+13	15
3	Qarabag	5	9	4	+5	13
4	Keshla FC	6	8	6	+2	9
5	Zira	6	7	8	-1	10
6	Turan	6	6	4	+2	11
7	Mil-Muğan	6	6	11	-5	4
8	Araz	6	5	13	-8	2
9	Kapaz	5	4	7	-3	7
10	Sumqayıt	5	4	8	-4	2
11	Qabala	6	2	7	-5	4
12	Safa Baku	6	2	11	-9	3