Avellino vs Sampdoria Statistics & Analysis

Avellino

Oct 09, 2026 - 18:30

4 0.91

1 1.08

xG Accuracy: 42%

Sampdoria

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) No Sì ✖ Errato
1X2 Sampdoria Avellino ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 4-1 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13211291

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Avellino win · Avellino 4–1 Sampdoria

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie B
Fixture: Avellino vs Sampdoria
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 33.8% · Away 36.9%
xG (showing): Avellino 0.91 — Sampdoria 1.08 (total xG ≈ 1.99)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 67.9% · Implied: 50.3% · Probability edge: +17.6 pts · Est. EV: +30.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 41.2% · No 58.8%
Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Serie B — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Palermo	5	4	1	0	13
2	Sudtirol	5	3	2	0	11
3	Mantova	5	3	2	0	11
4	Modena	5	3	1	1	10
5	Ascoli	5	3	1	1	10
6	Padova	5	2	1	2	7
7	Benevento	5	2	1	2	7
8	Verona	5	2	1	2	7
9	Avellino	5	2	1	2	7
10	Cesena	5	1	4	0	7
11	Pisa	5	2	1	2	7
12	Arezzo	5	2	0	3	6
13	Empoli	5	2	0	3	6
14	Virtus Entella	5	1	2	2	5
15	Cremonese	5	1	2	2	5
16	Vicenza Virtus	5	1	2	2	5
17	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	4
18	Juve Stabia	5	1	2	2	3
19	Catanzaro	5	1	0	4	3
20	Carrarese	5	0	1	4	1

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Palermo	5	10	5	+5	13
2	Mantova	5	10	5	+5	11
3	Verona	5	10	7	+3	7
4	Sudtirol	5	9	3	+6	11
5	Modena	5	8	4	+4	10
6	Pisa	5	8	8	0	7
7	Ascoli	5	7	4	+3	10
8	Avellino	5	7	6	+1	7
9	Cesena	5	7	6	+1	7
10	Virtus Entella	5	7	6	+1	5
11	Vicenza Virtus	5	7	10	-3	5
12	Benevento	5	6	5	+1	7
13	Arezzo	5	6	13	-7	6
14	Padova	5	5	6	-1	7
15	Cremonese	5	5	7	-2	5
16	Sampdoria	5	5	9	-4	4
17	Catanzaro	5	5	9	-4	3
18	Empoli	5	4	6	-2	6
19	Juve Stabia	5	4	7	-3	3
20	Carrarese	5	2	6	-4	1

#	SQUADRA	PG	xG	xGC	+/-	PT
1	Palermo	5	8.0	4.3	+3.7	13
2	Pisa	5	6.5	2.8	+3.7	7
3	Benevento	5	4.3	1.6	+2.7	7
4	Verona	5	4.8	2.2	+2.6	7
5	Modena	5	3.2	1.3	+1.9	10
6	Arezzo	5	3.6	2.9	+0.7	6
7	Mantova	5	2.9	2.6	+0.3	11
8	Virtus Entella	5	2.5	2.5	0.0	5
9	Carrarese	5	2.7	2.8	-0.1	1
10	Cesena	5	3.5	3.7	-0.2	7
11	Avellino	5	4.8	5.1	-0.3	7
12	Juve Stabia	5	3.1	3.7	-0.6	3
13	Sudtirol	5	2.7	3.5	-0.8	11
14	Catanzaro	5	2.8	3.8	-1.0	3
15	Padova	5	2.0	3.3	-1.3	7
16	Sampdoria	5	2.9	4.6	-1.7	4
17	Cremonese	5	0.8	2.8	-2.0	5
18	Vicenza Virtus	5	3.5	6.0	-2.5	5
19	Ascoli	5	3.5	6.1	-2.6	10
20	Empoli	5	3.5	6.4	-2.9	6