Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar Statistics & Analysis

Mbeya City

Oct 09, 2026 - 13:15

1 1.36

3 1.24

xG Accuracy: 56%

Kagera Sugar

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Mbeya City Kagera Sugar ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12687617

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Kagera Sugar win · Mbeya City 1–3 Kagera Sugar

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Ligi Kuu Bara
Fixture: Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 13:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Mbeya City 1.36 — Kagera Sugar 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.4% · Implied: 44.7% · Probability edge: +9.7 pts · Est. EV: +19.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Ligi Kuu Bara — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Young Africans	6	6	0	0	18
2	Simba SC	6	6	0	0	18
3	Azam FC	7	4	2	1	14
4	Singida Fountain Gate	6	3	1	2	10
5	Polisi Tanzania	6	3	1	2	10
6	Mbeya City	6	3	1	2	10
7	Dodoma Jiji	6	3	1	2	10
8	Mashujaa	6	3	0	3	9
9	Geita Gold	6	2	1	3	7
10	JKT Tanzania	6	2	1	3	7
11	Coastal Union	6	2	1	3	7
12	Kitayosce	6	1	3	2	6
13	Namungo	7	2	0	5	6
14	Singida Big Stars	6	1	1	4	4
15	Kagera Sugar	6	0	2	4	2
16	Pamba Jiji	6	0	1	5	1

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Young Africans	6	16	2	+14	18
2	Singida Fountain Gate	6	13	9	+4	10
3	Simba SC	6	11	2	+9	18
4	Azam FC	7	11	7	+4	14
5	Polisi Tanzania	6	9	7	+2	10
6	Geita Gold	6	9	8	+1	7
7	JKT Tanzania	6	7	10	-3	7
8	Mbeya City	6	6	4	+2	10
9	Mashujaa	6	6	6	0	9
10	Kitayosce	6	6	6	0	6
11	Coastal Union	6	6	9	-3	7
12	Namungo	7	6	11	-5	6
13	Kagera Sugar	6	5	14	-9	2
14	Dodoma Jiji	6	4	4	0	10
15	Pamba Jiji	6	4	13	-9	1
16	Singida Big Stars	6	2	9	-7	4