Inca Aruba vs Platense Statistics & Analysis

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Inca Aruba

Oct 10, 2026 - 00:00

1 1.32

4 1.28

xG Accuracy: 43%

Platense

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Inca Aruba Platense ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13181432

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Platense win · Inca Aruba 1–4 Platense

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera División El Salvador
Fixture: Inca Aruba vs Platense
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 00:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Inca Aruba 1.32 — Platense 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Primera División El Salvador — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	FAS	13	8	3	2	27
2	Isidro Metapán	13	8	2	3	26
3	Firpo	13	7	4	2	25
4	Inter El Salvador	14	5	7	2	22
5	CD Águila	14	5	5	4	20
6	Platense	15	5	4	6	19
7	Alianza FC	13	4	6	3	18
8	Municipal Limeño	14	5	2	7	17
9	Inca Aruba	15	4	4	7	16
10	Atletico Balboa	14	3	4	7	13
11	Fuerte San Francisco	15	2	6	7	12
12	Cacahuatique	15	2	5	8	11

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	FAS	13	24	12	+12	27
2	Firpo	13	23	9	+14	25
3	CD Águila	14	22	18	+4	20
4	Isidro Metapán	13	20	12	+8	26
5	Alianza FC	13	20	19	+1	18
6	Inter El Salvador	14	19	12	+7	22
7	Municipal Limeño	14	19	19	0	17
8	Platense	15	19	20	-1	19
9	Atletico Balboa	14	15	22	-7	13
10	Cacahuatique	15	15	26	-11	11
11	Inca Aruba	15	13	27	-14	16
12	Fuerte San Francisco	15	11	24	-13	12