Duque de Caxias vs Nova Cidade Statistics & Analysis

Duque de Caxias

Sep 05, 2026 - 17:45

3 1.30

0 1.30

xG Accuracy: 44%

Nova Cidade

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Duque de Caxias Duque de Caxias ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 04:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6166889

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Duque de Caxias win · Duque de Caxias 3–0 Nova Cidade

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Carioca Serie B2
Fixture: Duque de Caxias vs Nova Cidade
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Duque de Caxias 1.3 — Nova Cidade 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Carioca Serie B2 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Duque de Caxias	2	2	0	0	6
2	Artsul	2	2	0	0	6
3	Niteroiense	2	1	1	0	4
4	Goytacaz	2	1	1	0	4
5	Campo Grande	2	1	0	1	3
6	São Cristóvão RJ	2	0	2	0	2
7	Petrópolis	2	0	2	0	2
8	Serrano RJ	2	0	1	1	1
9	Nova Cidade	2	0	1	1	1
10	Macaé	1	0	0	1	0
11	Audax Rio	1	0	0	1	0
12	Carapebus	2	0	0	2	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Duque de Caxias	2	7	1	+6	6
2	Artsul	2	5	2	+3	6
3	Niteroiense	2	3	1	+2	4
4	Campo Grande	2	3	3	0	3
5	São Cristóvão RJ	2	2	2	0	2
6	Nova Cidade	2	2	5	-3	1
7	Goytacaz	2	1	0	+1	4
8	Petrópolis	2	1	1	0	2
9	Carapebus	2	1	5	-4	0
10	Macaé	1	0	1	-1	0
11	Serrano RJ	2	0	2	-2	1
12	Audax Rio	1	0	2	-2	0