Leek Town vs Ashton United Statistics & Analysis

Leek Town

Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.33

2 1.27

xG Accuracy: 68%

Ashton United

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Leek Town Pareggio ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13230670

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Leek Town 2–2 Ashton United

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Non League Premier - Northern
Fixture: Leek Town vs Ashton United
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Leek Town 1.33 — Ashton United 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.9% · Probability edge: +7.9 pts · Est. EV: +12.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Non League Premier - Northern — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Redcar Athletic	11	7	4	0	25
2	Cleethorpes Town	11	7	3	1	24
3	Avro	9	7	1	1	22
4	Workington	11	6	2	3	20
5	Guiseley AFC	10	6	1	3	19
6	Rylands	11	6	1	4	19
7	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	17
8	Bury	9	5	1	3	16
9	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	16
10	Lancaster City	11	5	1	5	16
11	Alfreton Town	11	5	0	6	15
12	Hyde United	11	4	2	5	14
13	Gainsborough Trinity	9	4	1	4	13
14	Whitby Town	10	4	0	6	12
15	Ashton United	9	3	2	4	11
16	AFC Emley	11	2	4	5	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	9
18	Quorn	10	2	3	5	9
19	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	9
20	Stockton Town	11	2	2	7	8
21	Ilkeston Town	11	2	1	8	7
22	United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	5

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Avro	9	28	16	+12	22
2	Cleethorpes Town	11	26	7	+19	24
3	Redcar Athletic	11	22	8	+14	25
4	Guiseley AFC	10	22	11	+11	19
5	Workington	11	21	17	+4	20
6	Bury	9	19	8	+11	16
7	Leek Town	10	19	20	-1	9
8	Curzon Ashton	9	18	10	+8	16
9	Warrington Town	9	18	14	+4	17
10	Alfreton Town	11	17	13	+4	15
11	Rylands	11	17	14	+3	19
12	Quorn	10	16	25	-9	9
13	Bamber Bridge	11	16	31	-15	9
14	Whitby Town	10	15	26	-11	12
15	Gainsborough Trinity	9	14	12	+2	13
16	Stockton Town	11	14	22	-8	8
17	Lancaster City	11	13	19	-6	16
18	Hyde United	11	13	20	-7	14
19	United of Manchester	9	12	19	-7	5
20	Ashton United	9	10	9	+1	11
21	AFC Emley	11	10	22	-12	10
22	Ilkeston Town	11	7	24	-17	7