Erkenschwick vs Verl II Statistics & Analysis

Erkenschwick

Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00

4 1.35

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 45%

Verl II

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Erkenschwick Erkenschwick ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11667795

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Erkenschwick win · Erkenschwick 4–1 Verl II

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Oberliga - Vestfalia
Fixture: Erkenschwick vs Verl II
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Erkenschwick 1.35 — Verl II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Oberliga - Vestfalia — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Gievenbeck	10	7	1	2	22
2	Vreden	9	6	1	2	19
3	Eintracht Rheine	9	6	0	3	18
4	Erkenschwick	9	5	3	1	18
5	Maaslingen	9	5	1	3	16
6	Lippstadt 08	9	5	1	3	16
7	Sprockhövel	9	4	2	3	14
8	Verl II	9	4	2	3	14
9	ASC Dortmund	9	4	1	4	13
10	Arminia II	9	3	3	3	12
11	Preußen Münster II	9	3	3	3	12
12	Westfalia Kinderhaus	9	3	3	3	12
13	TuS Hordel	9	2	4	3	10
14	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	9	3	0	6	9
15	Victoria Clarholz	9	2	2	5	8
16	Hiltrup	9	2	1	6	7
17	Ennepetal	9	0	5	4	5
18	Schermbeck	8	0	1	7	1

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Sprockhövel	9	25	17	+8	14
2	Vreden	9	25	19	+6	19
3	ASC Dortmund	9	23	19	+4	13
4	Gievenbeck	10	21	13	+8	22
5	Victoria Clarholz	9	21	22	-1	8
6	Eintracht Rheine	9	20	13	+7	18
7	Verl II	9	19	16	+3	14
8	Maaslingen	9	18	14	+4	16
9	Lippstadt 08	9	17	15	+2	16
10	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	9	17	23	-6	9
11	Erkenschwick	9	15	9	+6	18
12	Arminia II	9	14	12	+2	12
13	Preußen Münster II	9	14	12	+2	12
14	TuS Hordel	9	14	17	-3	10
15	Westfalia Kinderhaus	9	11	13	-2	12
16	Ennepetal	9	10	23	-13	5
17	Hiltrup	9	8	20	-12	7
18	Schermbeck	8	7	22	-15	1