Accrington Stanley vs Sunderland U21 Statistics & Analysis

Accrington Stanley

Sep 22, 2026 - 18:00

3(3) 1.26

3(1) 1.34

xG Accuracy: 39%

Sunderland U21

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) No Sì ✖ Errato
1X2 Sunderland U21 Pareggio ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-3 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8990464

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Accrington Stanley 3–3 Sunderland U21

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: EFL Trophy
Fixture: Accrington Stanley vs Sunderland U21
Kickoff: 2026-09-22 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Accrington Stanley 1.26 — Sunderland U21 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 30.8% · Probability edge: +21.0 pts · Est. EV: +65.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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