Sportfreunde Lotte vs Paderborn II Statistics & Analysis

Sportfreunde Lotte

Oct 10, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.26

0 1.34

xG Accuracy: 64%

Paderborn II

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Paderborn II Sportfreunde Lotte ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13199030

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Sportfreunde Lotte win · Sportfreunde Lotte 1–0 Paderborn II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Regionalliga West
Fixture: Sportfreunde Lotte vs Paderborn II
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Sportfreunde Lotte 1.26 — Paderborn II 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Regionalliga West — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Rot-Weiß Oberhausen	12	10	1	1	31
2	Borussia Dortmund II	12	8	4	0	28
3	FC Gütersloh	12	7	2	3	23
4	Borussia Mönchengladbach II	11	6	2	3	20
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	12	5	4	3	19
6	Schalke 04 II	11	6	0	5	18
7	Westfalia Rhynern	12	5	2	5	17
8	Bergisch Gladbach	12	5	1	6	16
9	Bonner SC	11	3	6	2	15
10	Hilden	12	4	3	5	15
11	Köln II	10	4	2	4	14
12	FC Bocholt	12	3	4	5	13
13	Paderborn II	12	3	4	5	13
14	SG Wattenscheid 09	12	3	3	6	12
15	Bochum II	11	3	2	6	11
16	SV Rödinghausen	11	2	3	6	9
17	Wiedenbrück	11	2	2	7	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	12	1	3	8	6

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Rot-Weiß Oberhausen	12	31	10	+21	31
2	Borussia Dortmund II	12	26	13	+13	28
3	FC Gütersloh	12	26	18	+8	23
4	Borussia Mönchengladbach II	11	25	13	+12	20
5	Schalke 04 II	11	25	21	+4	18
6	FC Bocholt	12	25	29	-4	13
7	Sportfreunde Siegen	12	24	18	+6	19
8	Bonner SC	11	21	20	+1	15
9	Westfalia Rhynern	12	20	23	-3	17
10	Bergisch Gladbach	12	20	27	-7	16
11	Köln II	10	19	18	+1	14
12	Paderborn II	12	19	23	-4	13
13	SG Wattenscheid 09	12	18	23	-5	12
14	Hilden	12	17	23	-6	15
15	SV Rödinghausen	11	15	20	-5	9
16	Bochum II	11	14	20	-6	11
17	Wiedenbrück	11	14	26	-12	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	12	8	22	-14	6