SGV Freiberg vs TSV Steinbach Statistics & Analysis

SGV Freiberg

Oct 03, 2026 - 12:00

2 1.31

2 1.29

xG Accuracy: 68%

TSV Steinbach

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 SGV Freiberg Pareggio ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11227237

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · SGV Freiberg 2–2 TSV Steinbach

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Regionalliga Sudwest
Fixture: SGV Freiberg vs TSV Steinbach
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): SGV Freiberg 1.31 — TSV Steinbach 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Regionalliga Sudwest — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	SGV Freiberg	10	5	5	0	20
2	Stuttgarter Kickers	10	6	2	2	20
3	Kickers Offenbach	10	6	1	3	19
4	VfR Aalen	10	5	3	2	18
5	Friburgo II	9	4	4	1	16
6	Eintracht Trier	10	5	1	4	16
7	FC 08 Homburg	10	4	3	3	15
8	VfR Mannheim	9	3	5	1	14
9	TSV Steinbach	10	3	4	3	13
10	SV Sandhausen	10	3	4	3	13
11	FSV Francoforte	9	3	3	3	12
12	Hessen Kassel	10	3	2	5	11
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	8	3	1	4	10
14	FC Astoria Walldorf	10	2	3	5	9
15	FSV Magonza 05 II	10	3	0	7	9
16	Kaiserslautern II	9	2	3	4	9
17	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehnerz	10	1	3	6	6
18	SSV Ulm 1846	10	0	5	5	5

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	SGV Freiberg	10	26	11	+15	20
2	Kickers Offenbach	10	20	13	+7	19
3	Stuttgarter Kickers	10	19	13	+6	20
4	VfR Aalen	10	18	11	+7	18
5	Friburgo II	9	18	11	+7	16
6	Hessen Kassel	10	17	19	-2	11
7	SV Sandhausen	10	16	20	-4	13
8	TSV Steinbach	10	15	15	0	13
9	FC Astoria Walldorf	10	15	18	-3	9
10	VfR Mannheim	9	14	9	+5	14
11	FSV Francoforte	9	14	13	+1	12
12	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehnerz	10	14	22	-8	6
13	FC 08 Homburg	10	13	13	0	15
14	SSV Ulm 1846	10	13	21	-8	5
15	Eintracht Trier	10	11	11	0	16
16	Eintracht Frankfurt II	8	11	12	-1	10
17	FSV Magonza 05 II	10	10	21	-11	9
18	Kaiserslautern II	9	7	18	-11	9