Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo Luqueño Statistics & Analysis

Cerro Porteño

Aug 01, 2026 - 21:30

3 2.35

0 0.98

xG Accuracy: 64%

Sportivo Luqueño

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Cerro Porteño Cerro Porteño ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 3-0 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 06:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1828046

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Cerro Porteño win · Cerro Porteño 3–0 Sportivo Luqueño

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Divisione Professionale - Clausura
Fixture: Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo Luqueño
Kickoff: 2026-08-01 21:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 66.8% · Draw 20.2% · Away 13.1%
xG (showing): Cerro Porteño 2.35 — Sportivo Luqueño 0.98 (total xG ≈ 3.33)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 64.7% · Implied: 45.2% · Probability edge: +19.5 pts · Est. EV: +35.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 57.6% · No 42.4%
Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (9.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Divisione Professionale - Clausura — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Olimpia Asunción	12	8	1	3	25
2	Libertad Asunción	12	7	2	3	23
3	Nacional Asunción	12	6	4	2	22
4	2 de Mayo	12	6	4	2	22
5	Club Guaraní	12	5	5	2	20
6	Sportivo Trinidense	12	6	2	4	20
7	Sportivo Ameliano	12	4	6	2	18
8	Cerro Porteño	12	5	2	5	17
9	Sportivo Luqueño	12	4	1	7	13
10	Rubio Ñu	12	2	3	7	9
11	Deportivo Recoleta	12	2	2	8	8
12	Club Sportivo San Lorenzo	12	0	2	10	2

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Olimpia Asunción	12	21	9	+12	25
2	Sportivo Trinidense	12	20	11	+9	20
3	Nacional Asunción	12	19	7	+12	22
4	Libertad Asunción	12	19	13	+6	23
5	Cerro Porteño	12	15	12	+3	17
6	2 de Mayo	12	14	13	+1	22
7	Sportivo Ameliano	12	14	13	+1	18
8	Club Guaraní	12	13	9	+4	20
9	Rubio Ñu	12	13	23	-10	9
10	Deportivo Recoleta	12	13	24	-11	8
11	Sportivo Luqueño	12	12	21	-9	13
12	Club Sportivo San Lorenzo	12	3	21	-18	2

#	SQUADRA	PG	xG	xGC	+/-	PT
1	Cerro Porteño	12	2.7	1.0	+1.7	17
2	Sportivo Trinidense	12	1.2	1.2	0.0	20
3	Club Sportivo San Lorenzo	12	1.2	1.2	0.0	2
4	Sportivo Luqueño	12	1.0	2.7	-1.7	13
5	Olimpia Asunción	12	—	—	—	25
6	Libertad Asunción	12	—	—	—	23
7	Nacional Asunción	12	—	—	—	22
8	2 de Mayo	12	—	—	—	22
9	Club Guaraní	12	—	—	—	20
10	Sportivo Ameliano	12	—	—	—	18
11	Rubio Ñu	12	—	—	—	9
12	Deportivo Recoleta	12	—	—	—	8