Statistiche / Calcio / Brasile. Campionato Mineiro - Terza Divisione / Santarritense vs Venda Nova

Santarritense vs Venda Nova Statistics & Analysis

⚽
Santarritense
Sep 27, 2026 - 19:00
0 1.32
8 1.28
xG Accuracy: 11%
⚽
Venda Nova
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Santarritense Venda Nova ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-8 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10110709

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Venda Nova win · Santarritense 0–8 Venda Nova
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Campionato Mineiro - Terza Divisione
  • Fixture: Santarritense vs Venda Nova
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Santarritense 1.32 — Venda Nova 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Campionato Mineiro - Terza Divisione Campionato Mineiro - Terza Divisione — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Nacional AC MG 3 3 0 0 9
1 Paracatu 3 3 0 0 9
2 Venda Nova 3 2 1 0 7
2 Betim 2 3 3 0 0 9
3 Novo Esporte Clube 3 1 1 1 4
3 Sao Joao del Rei 3 1 0 2 3
4 Inter de Minas 3 1 0 2 3
4 Funorte 3 1 0 2 3
5 Nova Lavras 3 1 0 2 3
5 Araxá 3 1 0 2 3
6 Santarritense 3 0 0 3 0
6 Siderurgica 3 0 0 3 0
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Paracatu 3 10 1 +9 9
2 Venda Nova 3 10 1 +9 7
3 Inter de Minas 3 8 4 +4 3
4 Nacional AC MG 3 6 1 +5 9
5 Betim 2 3 5 0 +5 9
6 Nova Lavras 3 5 4 +1 3
7 Araxá 3 4 4 0 3
8 Sao Joao del Rei 3 2 2 0 3
9 Novo Esporte Clube 3 2 4 -2 4
10 Funorte 3 1 6 -5 3
11 Santarritense 3 1 18 -17 0
12 Siderurgica 3 0 9 -9 0