Nacional AC MG vs Santarritense Statistics & Analysis

Nacional AC MG

Sep 21, 2026 - 22:30

3 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 44%

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Santarritense

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Nacional AC MG Nacional AC MG ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8840999

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Nacional AC MG win · Nacional AC MG 3–0 Santarritense

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Campionato Mineiro - Terza Divisione
Fixture: Nacional AC MG vs Santarritense
Kickoff: 2026-09-21 22:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Nacional AC MG 1.32 — Santarritense 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Campionato Mineiro - Terza Divisione — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	S	PT
1	Venda Nova	2	2	0	6
1	Paracatu	2	2	0	6
2	Nacional AC MG	2	2	0	6
2	Betim 2	2	2	0	6
3	Nova Lavras	2	1	1	3
3	Funorte	2	1	1	3
4	Novo Esporte Clube	2	1	1	3
4	Sao Joao del Rei	2	1	1	3
5	Inter de Minas	2	0	2	0
5	Araxá	2	0	2	0
6	Santarritense	2	0	2	0
6	Siderurgica	2	0	2	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Venda Nova	2	10	1	+9	6
2	Paracatu	2	7	1	+6	6
3	Nacional AC MG	2	4	0	+4	6
4	Betim 2	2	4	0	+4	6
5	Nova Lavras	2	4	2	+2	3
6	Sao Joao del Rei	2	2	1	+1	3
7	Novo Esporte Clube	2	2	4	-2	3
8	Funorte	2	1	3	-2	3
9	Inter de Minas	2	1	3	-2	0
10	Araxá	2	1	4	-3	0
11	Siderurgica	2	0	6	-6	0
12	Santarritense	2	0	11	-11	0