Baunatal vs Friedberg Statistics & Analysis

Baunatal

Aug 29, 2026 - 12:00

2 1.32

3 1.28

xG Accuracy: 52%

Friedberg

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Baunatal Friedberg ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5130227

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Friedberg win · Baunatal 2–3 Friedberg

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Oberliga - Assia
Fixture: Baunatal vs Friedberg
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Baunatal 1.32 — Friedberg 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Oberliga - Assia — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Unter-Flockenbach	11	8	1	2	25
2	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	11	7	2	2	23
3	Eddersheim	10	5	4	1	19
4	Hünfelder SV	10	6	1	3	19
5	Friedberg	10	5	3	2	18
6	VfB Marburg	10	5	2	3	17
7	TuBa Pohlheim	10	5	2	3	17
8	Hadamar	10	5	2	3	17
9	Darmstadt 98 II	10	4	3	3	15
10	Fernwald	10	3	5	2	14
11	Kassel	10	4	1	5	13
12	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	10	3	1	6	10
13	Baunatal	10	2	3	5	9
14	Kassel 2	10	2	2	6	8
15	Hummetroth	10	2	2	6	8
16	Bayern Alzenau	10	1	4	5	7
17	1960 Hanau	10	1	3	6	6
18	FC Gießen	10	1	3	6	6

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Unter-Flockenbach	11	34	20	+14	25
2	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	11	33	10	+23	23
3	Eddersheim	10	23	17	+6	19
4	Darmstadt 98 II	10	22	14	+8	15
5	Friedberg	10	22	17	+5	18
6	Hünfelder SV	10	19	13	+6	19
7	TuBa Pohlheim	10	18	17	+1	17
8	Hadamar	10	18	18	0	17
9	1960 Hanau	10	18	29	-11	6
10	Fernwald	10	16	14	+2	14
11	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	10	16	24	-8	10
12	VfB Marburg	10	15	13	+2	17
13	Hummetroth	10	14	22	-8	8
14	FC Gießen	10	13	26	-13	6
15	Kassel 2	10	12	16	-4	8
16	Kassel	10	12	21	-9	13
17	Baunatal	10	11	17	-6	9
18	Bayern Alzenau	10	8	16	-8	7