Montpellier W vs Tolosa Femminile Statistics & Analysis

Montpellier W

Sep 05, 2026 - 16:00

5 1.29

1 1.31

xG Accuracy: 33%

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Tolosa Femminile

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Tolosa Femminile Montpellier W ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-1 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6161156

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Montpellier W win · Montpellier W 5–1 Tolosa Femminile

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Division 1 Féminine
Fixture: Montpellier W vs Tolosa Femminile
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Montpellier W 1.29 — Tolosa Femminile 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Division 1 Féminine — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Lione W	2	2	0	0	6
2	Paris Saint-Germain Femminile	2	2	0	0	6
3	Marsiglia W	2	2	0	0	6
4	Strasburgo Femminile	2	1	0	1	3
5	Saint-Malo Femminile	2	1	0	1	3
6	Le Havre W	2	1	0	1	3
7	Paris FC Femminile	2	1	0	1	3
8	Montpellier W	2	1	0	1	3
9	Nantes W	2	0	1	1	1
10	FC Fleury 91 W	2	0	1	1	1
11	Lens W	2	0	0	2	0
12	Tolosa Femminile	2	0	0	2	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Lione W	2	14	2	+12	6
2	Montpellier W	2	5	2	+3	3
3	Paris Saint-Germain Femminile	2	4	0	+4	6
4	Marsiglia W	2	3	1	+2	6
5	Saint-Malo Femminile	2	3	3	0	3
6	Strasburgo Femminile	2	3	4	-1	3
7	Paris FC Femminile	2	3	7	-4	3
8	Le Havre W	2	2	2	0	3
9	Tolosa Femminile	2	2	7	-5	0
10	FC Fleury 91 W	2	2	8	-6	1
11	Nantes W	2	1	3	-2	1
12	Lens W	2	1	4	-3	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	xG	xGC	+/-	PT
1	Lione W	2	1.4	0.3	+1.1	6
2	FC Fleury 91 W	2	0.3	1.4	-1.1	1
3	Paris Saint-Germain Femminile	2	—	—	—	6
4	Marsiglia W	2	—	—	—	6
5	Strasburgo Femminile	2	—	—	—	3
6	Saint-Malo Femminile	2	—	—	—	3
7	Le Havre W	2	—	—	—	3
8	Paris FC Femminile	2	—	—	—	3
9	Montpellier W	2	—	—	—	3
10	Nantes W	2	—	—	—	1
11	Lens W	2	—	—	—	0
12	Tolosa Femminile	2	—	—	—	0