Carmarthen Town vs Treowen Stars Statistics & Analysis

Carmarthen Town

Aug 22, 2026 - 13:30

2 1.38

4 1.22

xG Accuracy: 39%

Treowen Stars

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Carmarthen Town Treowen Stars ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4223831

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Treowen Stars win · Carmarthen Town 2–4 Treowen Stars

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: FAW Championship
Fixture: Carmarthen Town vs Treowen Stars
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Carmarthen Town 1.38 — Treowen Stars 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

FAW Championship — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Swansea University	6	5	1	0	16
2	Aberystwyth Town	6	5	0	1	15
3	Treowen Stars	7	4	1	2	13
4	Pontypridd Town	6	4	1	1	13
5	Baglan Dragons	8	4	1	3	13
6	Carmarthen Town	7	3	2	2	11
7	Caerau (Ely)	7	3	1	3	10
8	Afan Lido	8	3	1	4	10
9	Trethomas Bluebirds	7	2	3	2	9
10	Ynyshir Albions	6	2	3	1	9
11	Caerphilly Athletic	7	2	2	3	8
12	Cardiff Draconians	5	2	1	2	7
13	Newport City	5	2	0	3	6
14	Pontardawe Town	6	1	0	5	3
15	Llanelli AFC	8	0	2	6	2
16	Llantwit Major	5	0	1	4	1

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Swansea University	6	22	5	+17	16
2	Aberystwyth Town	6	19	7	+12	15
3	Carmarthen Town	7	17	16	+1	11
4	Treowen Stars	7	16	10	+6	13
5	Pontypridd Town	6	16	11	+5	13
6	Caerau (Ely)	7	16	17	-1	10
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	7	14	13	+1	9
8	Afan Lido	8	13	15	-2	10
9	Newport City	5	9	5	+4	6
10	Baglan Dragons	8	8	8	0	13
11	Cardiff Draconians	5	7	8	-1	7
12	Caerphilly Athletic	7	7	12	-5	8
13	Ynyshir Albions	6	6	5	+1	9
14	Llanelli AFC	8	6	23	-17	2
15	Pontardawe Town	6	5	13	-8	3
16	Llantwit Major	5	2	15	-13	1