Statistiche / Calcio / Germania. Oberliga - Nordost-Süd / SC Freital vs Auerbach

SC Freital vs Auerbach Statistics & Analysis

SC Freital SC Freital
Sep 19, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.36
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 68%
Auerbach Auerbach
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 SC Freital Pareggio ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8664846

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · SC Freital 2–2 Auerbach
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Oberliga - Nordost-Süd
  • Fixture: SC Freital vs Auerbach
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): SC Freital 1.36 — Auerbach 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Nordost-Süd Oberliga - Nordost-Süd — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Germania Halberstadt 6 5 1 0 16
2 ZFC Meuselwitz 6 5 1 0 16
3 Eilenburg 6 4 1 1 13
4 VfL Halle 6 4 0 2 12
5 Auerbach 6 3 2 1 11
6 Dresden II 6 2 4 0 10
7 Weissenfels 6 3 0 3 9
8 VfB Plauen 6 2 2 2 8
9 Einheit Wernigerode 6 1 4 1 7
10 Union Sandersdorf 6 2 0 4 6
11 SC Freital 6 1 3 2 6
12 Budissa Bautzen 6 1 3 2 6
13 Krieschow 6 1 1 4 4
14 Empor Glauchau 6 0 2 4 2
15 Einheit Rudolstadt 5 0 2 3 2
16 FC Frankfurt 5 0 0 5 0
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Germania Halberstadt 6 20 4 +16 16
2 Eilenburg 6 19 10 +9 13
3 VfL Halle 6 15 11 +4 12
4 ZFC Meuselwitz 6 13 5 +8 16
5 Union Sandersdorf 6 13 10 +3 6
6 Einheit Wernigerode 6 12 12 0 7
7 Auerbach 6 11 7 +4 11
8 SC Freital 6 11 12 -1 6
9 Weissenfels 6 10 10 0 9
10 Dresden II 6 9 4 +5 10
11 VfB Plauen 6 9 7 +2 8
12 Budissa Bautzen 6 8 13 -5 6
13 FC Frankfurt 5 6 23 -17 0
14 Empor Glauchau 6 5 12 -7 2
15 Krieschow 6 5 16 -11 4
16 Einheit Rudolstadt 5 4 14 -10 2