Vitória Guimarães vs Moreirense Statistics & Analysis

Vitória Guimarães

Sep 20, 2026 - 14:30

1 1.72

1 0.60

xG Accuracy: 74%

Moreirense

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) No Sì ✖ Errato
1X2 Vitória Guimarães Pareggio ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8683279

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Vitória Guimarães 1–1 Moreirense

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primeira Liga
Fixture: Vitória Guimarães vs Moreirense
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 63.7% · Draw 24.6% · Away 11.7%
xG (showing): Vitória Guimarães 1.72 — Moreirense 0.6 (total xG ≈ 2.32)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 59.1% · Implied: 47.9% · Probability edge: +11.2 pts · Est. EV: +21.8%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Primeira Liga — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	8
11	Marítimo	7	2	2	3	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8
13	Famalicão	7	1	4	2	7
14	Vitória Guimarães	7	1	2	4	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	2

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Benfica	7	22	7	+15	16
2	FC Porto	7	18	3	+15	21
3	Sporting CP	7	17	8	+9	15
4	Estrela	7	14	14	0	10
5	Santa Clara	7	11	4	+7	15
6	Arouca	7	10	7	+3	11
7	Famalicão	7	9	7	+2	7
8	Academico Viseu	7	9	9	0	11
9	Alverca	7	9	11	-2	8
10	Marítimo	7	8	12	-4	8
11	Moreirense	7	8	14	-6	8
12	SC Braga	6	7	5	+2	11
13	Nacional	7	7	15	-8	4
14	Gil Vicente	6	5	5	0	8
15	Vitória Guimarães	7	5	8	-3	5
16	Rio Ave	7	5	15	-10	4
17	Estoril	7	3	10	-7	2
18	Casa Pia	7	3	16	-13	4

#	SQUADRA	PG	xG	xGC	+/-	PT
1	FC Porto	7	11.2	3.9	+7.3	21
2	Benfica	7	8.2	1.7	+6.5	16
3	Gil Vicente	6	6.9	2.8	+4.1	8
4	Vitória Guimarães	7	6.8	2.9	+3.9	5
5	Santa Clara	7	7.9	4.2	+3.7	15
6	Sporting CP	7	6.8	4.3	+2.5	15
7	SC Braga	6	3.3	1.4	+1.9	11
8	Estrela	7	4.4	5.2	-0.8	10
9	Famalicão	7	3.3	4.2	-0.9	7
10	Arouca	7	4.8	6.4	-1.6	11
11	Alverca	7	3.9	5.5	-1.6	8
12	Marítimo	7	5.1	6.9	-1.8	8
13	Estoril	7	4.8	7.0	-2.2	2
14	Nacional	7	4.6	7.5	-2.9	4
15	Moreirense	7	2.1	5.4	-3.3	8
16	Casa Pia	7	2.8	7.0	-4.2	4
17	Academico Viseu	7	5.7	10.4	-4.7	11
18	Rio Ave	7	2.4	8.3	-5.9	4