Lugano II vs Basel II Statistics & Analysis

Lugano II

Sep 13, 2026 - 13:30

3 1.22

0 1.38

xG Accuracy: 42%

Basel II

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Basel II Lugano II ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7440131

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Lugano II win · Lugano II 3–0 Basel II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 1. Liga Promotion
Fixture: Lugano II vs Basel II
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
xG (showing): Lugano II 1.22 — Basel II 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

1. Liga Promotion — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Biel-Bienne	7	5	1	1	16
2	Bulle	7	4	2	1	14
3	FC Sciaffusa	7	4	1	2	13
4	Cham	7	4	1	2	13
5	Grand-Saconnex	7	4	0	3	12
6	Brühl	7	3	2	2	11
7	Paradiso	6	3	1	2	10
8	Zürich II	6	3	1	2	10
9	Breitenrain	7	3	1	3	10
10	Young Boys II	7	3	1	3	10
11	Basel II	6	3	0	3	9
12	YF Juventus	7	3	0	4	9
13	Amical Saint-Prex	7	3	0	4	9
14	Bavois	7	2	2	3	8
15	Kreuzlingen	6	2	1	3	7
16	Lugano II	6	2	0	4	6
17	Luzern II	7	1	1	5	4
18	Bellinzona	6	0	1	5	1

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Bulle	7	16	10	+6	14
2	Biel-Bienne	7	15	9	+6	16
3	Young Boys II	7	15	17	-2	10
4	Paradiso	6	14	7	+7	10
5	Grand-Saconnex	7	14	12	+2	12
6	Basel II	6	13	12	+1	9
7	FC Sciaffusa	7	12	9	+3	13
8	Cham	7	11	8	+3	13
9	Brühl	7	11	8	+3	11
10	YF Juventus	7	11	13	-2	9
11	Lugano II	6	11	18	-7	6
12	Bavois	7	10	8	+2	8
13	Breitenrain	7	10	9	+1	10
14	Zürich II	6	10	11	-1	10
15	Luzern II	7	10	13	-3	4
16	Amical Saint-Prex	7	8	16	-8	9
17	Kreuzlingen	6	6	8	-2	7
18	Bellinzona	6	3	12	-9	1