RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero Statistics & Analysis

RSD Alcalá

Oct 04, 2026 - 10:00

1 1.35

3 1.25

xG Accuracy: 56%

Navalcarnero

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 RSD Alcalá Navalcarnero ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11659982

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Navalcarnero win · RSD Alcalá 1–3 Navalcarnero

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 5
Fixture: RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): RSD Alcalá 1.35 — Navalcarnero 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 5 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Numancia	4	3	1	0	10
2	Conquense	4	3	1	0	10
3	Salamanca UDS	4	3	0	1	9
4	Atlético Madrid III	4	3	0	1	9
5	CF Talavera	5	2	2	1	8
6	Gimnástica Segoviana	5	2	1	2	7
7	San Sebastián de los Reyes	4	2	1	1	7
8	Real Valladolid B	4	2	0	2	6
9	RSD Alcalá	4	2	0	2	6
10	Real Ávila	4	2	0	2	6
11	Atlético Paso	5	1	2	2	5
12	Albacete II	5	1	2	2	5
13	Guadalajara	4	1	1	2	4
14	Navalcarnero	4	1	1	2	4
15	Calvo Sotelo	4	1	1	2	4
16	Getafe II	4	0	2	2	2
17	Real Madrid III	4	0	2	2	2
18	Atlético Tordesillas	4	0	1	3	1

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Gimnástica Segoviana	5	11	10	+1	7
2	RSD Alcalá	4	9	7	+2	6
3	Conquense	4	8	4	+4	10
4	Real Valladolid B	4	8	4	+4	6
5	Salamanca UDS	4	7	3	+4	9
6	CF Talavera	5	7	5	+2	8
7	Guadalajara	4	7	8	-1	4
8	Albacete II	5	7	15	-8	5
9	Atlético Tordesillas	4	6	10	-4	1
10	Numancia	4	5	0	+5	10
11	Atlético Madrid III	4	5	3	+2	9
12	Real Ávila	4	5	5	0	6
13	Navalcarnero	4	5	7	-2	4
14	San Sebastián de los Reyes	4	4	3	+1	7
15	Atlético Paso	5	3	5	-2	5
16	Getafe II	4	3	5	-2	2
17	Calvo Sotelo	4	2	5	-3	4
18	Real Madrid III	4	0	3	-3	2