Getafe II vs Numancia Statistics & Analysis

Oct 04, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.39
0 1.21
xG Accuracy: 49%
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Getafe II Pareggio ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11659964

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Getafe II 0–0 Numancia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 5
  • Fixture: Getafe II vs Numancia
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Getafe II 1.39 — Numancia 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 39.0% · Probability edge: +9.2 pts · Est. EV: +18.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche
Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 5 Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 5 — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Numancia 4 3 1 0 10
2 Conquense 4 3 1 0 10
3 Salamanca UDS 4 3 0 1 9
4 Atlético Madrid III 4 3 0 1 9
5 CF Talavera 5 2 2 1 8
6 Gimnástica Segoviana 5 2 1 2 7
7 San Sebastián de los Reyes 4 2 1 1 7
8 Real Valladolid B 4 2 0 2 6
9 RSD Alcalá 4 2 0 2 6
10 Real Ávila 4 2 0 2 6
11 Atlético Paso 5 1 2 2 5
12 Albacete II 5 1 2 2 5
13 Guadalajara 4 1 1 2 4
14 Navalcarnero 4 1 1 2 4
15 Calvo Sotelo 4 1 1 2 4
16 Getafe II 4 0 2 2 2
17 Real Madrid III 4 0 2 2 2
18 Atlético Tordesillas 4 0 1 3 1
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Gimnástica Segoviana 5 11 10 +1 7
2 RSD Alcalá 4 9 7 +2 6
3 Conquense 4 8 4 +4 10
4 Real Valladolid B 4 8 4 +4 6
5 Salamanca UDS 4 7 3 +4 9
6 CF Talavera 5 7 5 +2 8
7 Guadalajara 4 7 8 -1 4
8 Albacete II 5 7 15 -8 5
9 Atlético Tordesillas 4 6 10 -4 1
10 Numancia 4 5 0 +5 10
11 Atlético Madrid III 4 5 3 +2 9
12 Real Ávila 4 5 5 0 6
13 Navalcarnero 4 5 7 -2 4
14 San Sebastián de los Reyes 4 4 3 +1 7
15 Atlético Paso 5 3 5 -2 5
16 Getafe II 4 3 5 -2 2
17 Calvo Sotelo 4 2 5 -3 4
18 Real Madrid III 4 0 3 -3 2