Atlético Paso vs Atlético Madrid III Statistics & Analysis

Atlético Paso

Sep 19, 2026 - 18:30

0 1.25

1 1.35

xG Accuracy: 64%

Atlético Madrid III

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Atlético Madrid III Atlético Madrid III ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8707922

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Atlético Madrid III win · Atlético Paso 0–1 Atlético Madrid III

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 5
Fixture: Atlético Paso vs Atlético Madrid III
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Atlético Paso 1.25 — Atlético Madrid III 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 5 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Numancia	3	2	1	0	7
2	Conquense	3	2	1	0	7
3	San Sebastián de los Reyes	4	2	1	1	7
4	RSD Alcalá	3	2	0	1	6
5	Real Valladolid B	3	2	0	1	6
6	Gimnástica Segoviana	4	2	0	2	6
7	Salamanca UDS	3	2	0	1	6
8	Atlético Madrid III	3	2	0	1	6
9	Navalcarnero	3	1	1	1	4
10	Albacete II	3	1	1	1	4
11	Guadalajara	2	1	0	1	3
12	Real Ávila	3	1	0	2	3
13	Real Madrid III	2	0	2	0	2
14	Getafe II	3	0	2	1	2
15	CF Talavera	3	0	2	1	2
16	Atlético Tordesillas	3	0	1	2	1
17	Atlético Paso	3	0	1	2	1
18	Calvo Sotelo	3	0	1	2	1

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	RSD Alcalá	3	9	4	+5	6
2	Gimnástica Segoviana	4	8	7	+1	6
3	Real Valladolid B	3	7	2	+5	6
4	Atlético Tordesillas	3	6	9	-3	1
5	Conquense	3	5	3	+2	7
6	Albacete II	3	5	9	-4	4
7	Numancia	3	4	0	+4	7
8	San Sebastián de los Reyes	4	4	3	+1	7
9	Salamanca UDS	3	4	3	+1	6
10	Navalcarnero	3	4	4	0	4
11	Guadalajara	2	4	4	0	3
12	Real Ávila	3	4	5	-1	3
13	Atlético Madrid III	3	3	3	0	6
14	Getafe II	3	3	4	-1	2
15	CF Talavera	3	1	4	-3	2
16	Calvo Sotelo	3	1	5	-4	1
17	Real Madrid III	2	0	0	0	2
18	Atlético Paso	3	0	3	-3	1