Ciudad de Lucena vs Puente Genil Statistics & Analysis

Ciudad de Lucena

Oct 04, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.34

0 1.26

xG Accuracy: 64%

Puente Genil

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Ciudad de Lucena Ciudad de Lucena ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11685316

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ciudad de Lucena win · Ciudad de Lucena 1–0 Puente Genil

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 4
Fixture: Ciudad de Lucena vs Puente Genil
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Ciudad de Lucena 1.34 — Puente Genil 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 4 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Real Betis B	4	3	1	0	10
2	Don Benito	5	3	1	1	10
3	Tenerife II	4	3	0	1	9
4	Recreativo Huelva	4	3	0	1	9
5	Sevilla Atlético	4	2	1	1	7
6	Badajoz	4	2	1	1	7
7	Estepona	5	2	1	2	7
8	Atlético Central	4	2	0	2	6
9	Ciudad de Lucena	4	1	2	1	5
10	Mijas Las Lagunas	4	1	2	1	5
11	Marbella	4	1	2	1	5
12	Atlético Sanluqueño	4	1	2	1	5
13	Puente Genil	4	1	1	2	4
14	Linares Deportivo	4	1	1	2	4
15	Las Palmas Atlético	4	1	1	2	4
16	Xerez	4	0	2	2	2
17	Antoniano	4	0	2	2	2
18	Tamaraceite	4	0	0	4	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Tenerife II	4	8	5	+3	9
2	Mijas Las Lagunas	4	8	8	0	5
3	Don Benito	5	7	4	+3	10
4	Estepona	5	7	7	0	7
5	Real Betis B	4	6	0	+6	10
6	Recreativo Huelva	4	6	4	+2	9
7	Sevilla Atlético	4	6	4	+2	7
8	Ciudad de Lucena	4	6	4	+2	5
9	Marbella	4	6	6	0	5
10	Atlético Central	4	6	7	-1	6
11	Puente Genil	4	5	4	+1	4
12	Atlético Sanluqueño	4	5	5	0	5
13	Linares Deportivo	4	5	7	-2	4
14	Badajoz	4	4	3	+1	7
15	Tamaraceite	4	3	11	-8	0
16	Antoniano	4	2	6	-4	2
17	Xerez	4	1	3	-2	2
18	Las Palmas Atlético	4	1	4	-3	4