Statistiche / Calcio / Spagna. Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 2 / Náxara vs Peña Sport

Náxara vs Peña Sport Statistics & Analysis

Náxara Náxara
Oct 10, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 64%
Peña Sport Peña Sport
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Náxara Náxara ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13243994

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Náxara win · Náxara 1–0 Peña Sport
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 2
  • Fixture: Náxara vs Peña Sport
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Náxara 1.33 — Peña Sport 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 2 Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 2 — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Barcelona B 6 5 1 0 16
2 Osasuna B 6 4 1 1 13
3 Ebro 6 4 1 1 13
4 Manresa 6 3 1 2 10
5 Olot 5 3 1 1 10
6 Espanyol B 4 3 0 1 9
7 Girona B 4 2 1 1 7
8 Tudelano 5 2 1 2 7
9 Terrassa FC 4 2 1 1 7
10 Utebo 6 1 4 1 7
11 Peña Sport 6 2 1 3 7
12 Barbastro 5 1 3 1 6
13 Reddis 5 2 0 3 6
14 UD Logroñés B 5 1 2 2 5
15 Náxara 5 1 1 3 4
16 Calamocha 6 1 0 5 3
17 SD Logroñés 6 0 2 4 2
18 Arnedo 6 0 1 5 1
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Barcelona B 6 13 1 +12 16
2 Espanyol B 4 13 3 +10 9
3 Manresa 6 11 5 +6 10
4 Olot 5 11 7 +4 10
5 Girona B 4 11 9 +2 7
6 Osasuna B 6 10 4 +6 13
7 Ebro 6 9 4 +5 13
8 Tudelano 5 7 6 +1 7
9 Peña Sport 6 7 9 -2 7
10 Utebo 6 5 5 0 7
11 Barbastro 5 5 5 0 6
12 UD Logroñés B 5 5 7 -2 5
13 SD Logroñés 6 4 12 -8 2
14 Reddis 5 3 7 -4 6
15 Calamocha 6 3 15 -12 3
16 Arnedo 6 3 16 -13 1
17 Terrassa FC 4 2 1 +1 7
18 Náxara 5 2 8 -6 4
Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 2 Spagna. Segunda División RFEF - Gruppo 2 Pronostici