Statistiche / Calcio / Spagna. Primera División RFEF - Gruppo 1 / Real Avilés vs Lugo

Real Avilés vs Lugo Statistics & Analysis

Real Avilés Real Avilés
Oct 02, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Lugo Lugo
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Real Avilés Lugo ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10975051

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lugo win · Real Avilés 1–2 Lugo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Gruppo 1
  • Fixture: Real Avilés vs Lugo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Real Avilés 1.32 — Lugo 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 18, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Gruppo 1 Primera División RFEF - Gruppo 1 — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Lugo 8 7 1 0 22
2 UD Logroñés 7 5 1 1 16
3 Racing Ferrol 8 5 1 2 16
4 Athletic Club II 7 3 3 1 12
5 Cacereño 7 3 3 1 12
6 Zamora 8 3 3 2 12
7 Ponferradina 8 3 3 2 12
8 Cultural Leonesa 7 3 2 2 11
9 Mirandés 8 3 2 3 11
10 Real Unión 8 2 4 2 10
11 Extremadura 1924 8 3 1 4 10
12 Mérida AD 7 3 0 4 9
13 Barakaldo 8 2 3 3 9
14 Real Avilés 7 2 2 3 8
15 Pontevedra 7 2 2 3 8
16 Deportivo La Coruña II 8 2 2 4 8
17 Unionistas de Salamanca 8 2 1 5 7
18 CD Coria 7 1 2 4 5
19 UD Ourense 7 1 2 4 5
20 Arenas Getxo 7 0 2 5 2
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 UD Logroñés 7 16 10 +6 16
2 Lugo 8 15 4 +11 22
3 Real Unión 8 15 13 +2 10
4 Athletic Club II 7 12 8 +4 12
5 Extremadura 1924 8 11 10 +1 10
6 Real Avilés 7 11 10 +1 8
7 Mérida AD 7 11 12 -1 9
8 Zamora 8 10 8 +2 12
9 Mirandés 8 10 10 0 11
10 Unionistas de Salamanca 8 10 14 -4 7
11 CD Coria 7 10 15 -5 5
12 Racing Ferrol 8 9 5 +4 16
13 Pontevedra 7 9 10 -1 8
14 Cultural Leonesa 7 8 6 +2 11
15 Barakaldo 8 8 10 -2 9
16 Deportivo La Coruña II 8 8 11 -3 8
17 Cacereño 7 7 4 +3 12
18 Ponferradina 8 6 6 0 12
19 Arenas Getxo 7 5 18 -13 2
20 UD Ourense 7 3 10 -7 5
Primera División RFEF - Gruppo 1 Spagna. Primera División RFEF - Gruppo 1 Pronostici