Statistiche / Calcio / Polonia. III Liga - Gruppo 4 / Czarni Połaniec vs KSZO 1929

Czarni Połaniec vs KSZO 1929 Statistics & Analysis

Czarni Połaniec Czarni Połaniec
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 85%
KSZO 1929 KSZO 1929
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 KSZO 1929 Pareggio ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11236406

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Czarni Połaniec 1–1 KSZO 1929
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Gruppo 4
  • Fixture: Czarni Połaniec vs KSZO 1929
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Czarni Połaniec 1.25 — KSZO 1929 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Gruppo 4 III Liga - Gruppo 4 — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Chełmianka Chełm 10 8 2 0 26
2 Wisłoka Dębica 11 7 1 3 22
3 KSZO 1929 10 5 4 1 19
4 Czarni Połaniec 10 6 1 3 19
5 Jarosław 10 5 2 3 17
6 Naprzód 10 5 2 3 17
7 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 11 5 2 4 17
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 4 2 4 14
9 Hetman Zamość 10 3 4 3 13
10 Wisła Kraków II 10 3 4 3 13
11 Sokół Kolbuszowa 10 2 6 2 12
12 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 11 3 3 5 12
13 Star Starachowice 11 2 5 4 11
14 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 11 3 2 6 11
15 Busko-Zdroj 10 3 2 5 11
16 Korona Kielce II 10 2 2 6 8
17 Moravia Morawica 10 2 1 7 7
18 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 11 2 1 8 7
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Jarosław 10 26 17 +9 17
2 Naprzód 10 24 20 +4 17
3 Korona Kielce II 10 21 26 -5 8
4 Hetman Zamość 10 18 18 0 13
5 Czarni Połaniec 10 17 15 +2 19
6 Chełmianka Chełm 10 16 3 +13 26
7 Wisłoka Dębica 11 16 13 +3 22
8 KSZO 1929 10 15 8 +7 19
9 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 11 15 11 +4 17
10 Busko-Zdroj 10 14 21 -7 11
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 13 13 0 14
12 Wisła Kraków II 10 13 13 0 13
13 Star Starachowice 11 13 17 -4 11
14 Moravia Morawica 10 11 20 -9 7
15 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 11 11 21 -10 7
16 Sokół Kolbuszowa 10 10 10 0 12
17 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 11 10 13 -3 12
18 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 11 10 14 -4 11
III Liga - Gruppo 4 Polonia. III Liga - Gruppo 4 Pronostici