Chełmianka Chełm vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg Statistics & Analysis

Chełmianka Chełm

Sep 12, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.48

1 1.12

xG Accuracy: 85%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Chełmianka Chełm Pareggio ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7426427

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Chełmianka Chełm 1–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: III Liga - Gruppo 4
Fixture: Chełmianka Chełm vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Away 27.1%
xG (showing): Chełmianka Chełm 1.48 — Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

III Liga - Gruppo 4 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Chełmianka Chełm	10	8	2	0	26
2	KSZO 1929	9	5	4	0	19
3	Czarni Połaniec	10	6	1	3	19
4	Wisłoka Dębica	10	6	1	3	19
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	10	5	2	3	17
6	Naprzód	10	5	2	3	17
7	Jarosław	9	5	1	3	16
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	14
9	Wisła Kraków II	10	3	4	3	13
10	Sokół Kolbuszowa	10	2	6	2	12
11	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	10	3	2	5	11
12	Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	11
13	Hetman Zamość	9	2	4	3	10
14	Star Starachowice	10	2	4	4	10
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	8
16	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	8
17	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	10	2	1	7	7
18	Moravia Morawica	9	2	0	7	6

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Jarosław	9	24	15	+9	16
2	Naprzód	10	24	20	+4	17
3	Korona Kielce II	10	21	26	-5	8
4	Czarni Połaniec	10	17	15	+2	19
5	Chełmianka Chełm	10	16	3	+13	26
6	Hetman Zamość	9	16	17	-1	10
7	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	10	15	10	+5	17
8	KSZO 1929	9	14	6	+8	19
9	Wisłoka Dębica	10	14	12	+2	19
10	Busko-Zdroj	10	14	21	-7	11
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	13	13	0	14
12	Wisła Kraków II	10	13	13	0	13
13	Star Starachowice	10	11	15	-4	10
14	Sokół Kolbuszowa	10	10	10	0	12
15	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	10	10	19	-9	7
16	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	10	9	14	-5	8
17	Moravia Morawica	9	9	18	-9	6
18	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	10	8	11	-3	11