Statistiche / Calcio / Giappone. Coppa J-League / Kashiwa Reysol vs Gamba Osaka

Kashiwa Reysol vs Gamba Osaka Statistics & Analysis

Oct 03, 2026 - 10:00
5 1.42
4 1.18
xG Accuracy: 39%
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) No Sì ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 5-4 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11219869

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kashiwa Reysol win · Kashiwa Reysol 5–4 Gamba Osaka
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Coppa J-League
  • Fixture: Kashiwa Reysol vs Gamba Osaka
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Kashiwa Reysol 1.42 — Gamba Osaka 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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