Statistiche / Calcio / Mondo. Amichevoli Club / FSV Magonza 05 II vs Progres Niederkorn

FSV Magonza 05 II vs Progres Niederkorn Statistics & Analysis

FSV Magonza 05 II FSV Magonza 05 II
Jul 04, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 64%
Progres Niederkorn Progres Niederkorn
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 FSV Magonza 05 II FSV Magonza 05 II ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1490178

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FSV Magonza 05 II win · FSV Magonza 05 II 1–0 Progres Niederkorn
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Amichevoli Club
  • Fixture: FSV Magonza 05 II vs Progres Niederkorn
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-04 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): FSV Magonza 05 II 1.41 — Progres Niederkorn 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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