Dinamo Zagabria vs FC Thun Statistics & Analysis

Dinamo Zagabria

Jul 28, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.34

2 1.26

xG Accuracy: 68%

FC Thun

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Dinamo Zagabria Dinamo Zagabria ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455085

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Dinamo Zagabria win · Dinamo Zagabria 3–2 FC Thun

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: UEFA Champions League
Fixture: Dinamo Zagabria vs FC Thun
Kickoff: 2026-07-28 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 51.5% · Draw 25.4% · Away 23.1%
xG (showing): Dinamo Zagabria 1.34 — FC Thun 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

UEFA Champions League — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Paris Saint-Germain	1	1	0	0	3
2	Bayern Monaco	1	1	0	0	3
3	Barcellona	1	1	0	0	3
4	Manchester United	1	1	0	0	3
5	Como	1	1	0	0	3
6	VfB Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	3
7	Sporting CP	1	1	0	0	3
8	Manchester City	1	1	0	0	3
9	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	3
10	Lens	1	1	0	0	3
11	Real Betis	1	1	0	0	3
12	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	0	3
13	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	3
14	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	3
15	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	3
16	AEK Atene	1	1	0	0	3
17	AS Roma	1	0	1	0	1
18	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1	0	1
19	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1	0	1
20	Fenerbahçe	1	0	1	0	1
21	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	0
22	Lille	1	0	0	1	0
23	Slavia Praga	1	0	0	1	0
24	Club Brugge	1	0	0	1	0
25	Inter	1	0	0	1	0
26	Atletico Madrid	1	0	0	1	0
27	Napoli	1	0	0	1	0
28	LASK Linz	1	0	0	1	0
29	Viking	1	0	0	1	0
30	Galatasaray	1	0	0	1	0
31	FC Porto	1	0	0	1	0
32	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	0
33	Feyenoord	1	0	0	1	0
34	Sabah FA	1	0	0	1	0
35	Slovan Bratislava	1	0	0	1	0
36	Bodø/Glimt	1	0	0	1	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Paris Saint-Germain	1	6	1	+5	3
2	Bayern Monaco	1	5	0	+5	3
3	Barcellona	1	5	1	+4	3
4	Manchester United	1	4	0	+4	3
5	Como	1	4	1	+3	3
6	VfB Stuttgart	1	3	1	+2	3
7	Sporting CP	1	3	1	+2	3
8	Aston Villa	1	3	2	+1	3
9	Lens	1	3	2	+1	3
10	Real Betis	1	3	2	+1	3
11	Borussia Dortmund	1	3	2	+1	3
12	Manchester City	1	2	0	+2	3
13	Liverpool	1	2	1	+1	3
14	Real Madrid	1	2	1	+1	3
15	Villarreal	1	2	3	-1	0
16	Lille	1	2	3	-1	0
17	Slavia Praga	1	2	3	-1	0
18	Club Brugge	1	2	3	-1	0
19	Arsenal	1	1	0	+1	3
20	AEK Atene	1	1	0	+1	3
21	AS Roma	1	1	1	0	1
22	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	1	1	0	1
23	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	1	0	1
24	Fenerbahçe	1	1	1	0	1
25	Inter	1	1	2	-1	0
26	Atletico Madrid	1	1	2	-1	0
27	Viking	1	1	3	-2	0
28	Galatasaray	1	1	3	-2	0
29	RB Leipzig	1	1	4	-3	0
30	Feyenoord	1	1	5	-4	0
31	Slovan Bratislava	1	1	6	-5	0
32	Napoli	1	0	1	-1	0
33	LASK Linz	1	0	1	-1	0
34	FC Porto	1	0	2	-2	0
35	Sabah FA	1	0	4	-4	0
36	Bodø/Glimt	1	0	5	-5	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	xG	xGC	+/-	PT
1	Aston Villa	1	6.4	3.3	+3.1	3
2	Manchester City	1	5.0	2.1	+2.9	3
3	Bayern Monaco	1	3.5	0.6	+2.9	3
4	Barcellona	1	2.9	0.4	+2.5	3
5	Liverpool	1	4.9	3.0	+1.9	3
6	Real Betis	1	3.6	1.9	+1.7	3
7	VfB Stuttgart	1	2.2	0.8	+1.4	3
8	Arsenal	1	1.7	0.3	+1.4	3
9	Borussia Dortmund	1	3.7	2.5	+1.2	3
10	Real Madrid	1	4.4	3.3	+1.1	3
11	AEK Atene	1	3.1	2.1	+1.0	3
12	Slavia Praga	1	2.1	1.4	+0.7	0
13	RB Leipzig	1	2.1	1.4	+0.7	0
14	Como	1	1.3	0.7	+0.6	3
15	Napoli	1	1.7	1.2	+0.5	0
16	Sporting CP	1	3.4	3.0	+0.4	3
17	Bodø/Glimt	1	1.2	0.8	+0.4	0
18	Lens	1	1.7	1.7	0.0	3
19	AS Roma	1	1.5	1.5	0.0	1
20	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	1.4	1.4	0.0	1
21	Atletico Madrid	1	2.4	2.6	-0.2	0
22	Manchester United	1	1.0	1.5	-0.5	3
23	Feyenoord	1	0.7	1.3	-0.6	0
24	PSV Eindhoven	1	1.4	2.1	-0.7	1
25	Sabah FA	1	1.4	2.1	-0.7	0
26	Paris Saint-Germain	1	1.9	2.7	-0.8	3
27	Inter	1	6.2	7.2	-1.0	0
28	Fenerbahçe	1	1.8	3.1	-1.3	1
29	Slovan Bratislava	1	0.8	2.2	-1.4	0
30	Club Brugge	1	5.8	7.5	-1.7	0
31	Villarreal	1	2.6	4.5	-1.9	0
32	LASK Linz	1	2.8	5.0	-2.2	0
33	Lille	1	1.1	3.5	-2.4	0
34	FC Porto	1	1.3	4.1	-2.8	0
35	Viking	1	0.6	3.5	-2.9	0
36	Galatasaray	1	1.6	4.6	-3.0	0