CSKA Sofia vs Marek Statistics & Analysis

CSKA Sofia

Jul 03, 2026 - 16:00

3 1.47

0 1.13

xG Accuracy: 48%

Marek

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1466182

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result CSKA Sofia win · CSKA Sofia 3–0 Marek

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Amichevoli Club
Fixture: CSKA Sofia vs Marek
Kickoff: 2026-07-03 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.5%
xG (showing): CSKA Sofia 1.47 — Marek 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 19, 2026 (UTC)

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