CSKA Sofia vs Derry City Statistics & Analysis

CSKA Sofia

Jul 09, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.32

2 1.28

xG Accuracy: 52%

Derry City

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1471228

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result CSKA Sofia win · CSKA Sofia 3–2 Derry City

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: UEFA Europa League
Fixture: CSKA Sofia vs Derry City
Kickoff: 2026-07-09 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 56.8% · Draw 24.5% · Away 18.7%
xG (showing): CSKA Sofia 1.32 — Derry City 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

UEFA Europa League — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Juventus	1	1	0	0	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	3
3	Sparta Praga	1	1	0	0	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	1	0	0	3
5	Union Saint-Gilloise	1	1	0	0	3
6	Ferencvárosi TC	1	1	0	0	3
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	3
9	OFI Creta	1	1	0	0	3
10	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	3
11	Lione	1	1	0	0	3
12	SCU Torreense	1	1	0	0	3
13	Olympiakos	1	1	0	0	3
14	Red Bull Salisburgo	1	1	0	0	3
15	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	1	0	0	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagabria	1	0	1	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	0	0	1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	0	0	1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	0	0	1	0
24	Lillestrøm	1	0	0	1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	0	0	1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	0	1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	0	0	1	0
28	Celtic	1	0	0	1	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	0
30	AC Milan	1	0	0	1	0
31	Celje	1	0	0	1	0
32	Marsiglia	1	0	0	1	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	0	0	1	0
34	Viktoria Plzeň	1	0	0	1	0
35	Lech Poznań	1	0	0	1	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Juventus	1	5	0	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	4	0	+4	3
3	Sparta Praga	1	4	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	4	1	+3	3
5	Union Saint-Gilloise	1	3	0	+3	3
6	Ferencvárosi TC	1	3	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	2	0	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	2	0	+2	3
9	OFI Creta	1	2	0	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	2	1	+1	3
11	Lione	1	2	1	+1	3
12	SCU Torreense	1	2	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos	1	2	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salisburgo	1	1	0	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	1	0	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	1	0	+1	3
17	Jagiellonia	1	1	2	-1	0
18	Real Sociedad	1	1	2	-1	0
19	Anderlecht	1	1	2	-1	0
20	Lillestrøm	1	1	2	-1	0
21	Celtic	1	1	3	-2	0
22	Marsiglia	1	1	4	-3	0
23	Ararat-Armenia	1	1	4	-3	0
24	Sturm Graz	1	0	0	0	1
25	Rennes	1	0	0	0	1
26	Dinamo Zagabria	1	0	0	0	1
27	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	0	0	1
28	Celta Vigo	1	0	1	-1	0
29	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	1	-1	0
30	Levski Sofia	1	0	1	-1	0
31	1899 Hoffenheim	1	0	2	-2	0
32	AC Milan	1	0	2	-2	0
33	Celje	1	0	2	-2	0
34	Viktoria Plzeň	1	0	3	-3	0
35	Lech Poznań	1	0	4	-4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	0	5	-5	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	xG	xGC	+/-	PT
1	Olympiakos	1	2.5	0.5	+2.0	3
2	Sunderland	1	2.9	1.5	+1.4	3
3	Bayer Leverkusen	1	1.9	0.9	+1.0	3
4	Rennes	1	1.8	0.8	+1.0	1
5	Celta Vigo	1	1.2	0.3	+0.9	0
6	Sparta Praga	1	2.5	1.9	+0.6	3
7	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0.8	0.3	+0.5	1
8	AC Milan	1	1.0	0.6	+0.4	0
9	Anderlecht	1	1.4	1.3	+0.1	0
10	Lione	1	1.3	1.4	-0.1	3
11	Benfica	1	0.6	1.0	-0.4	3
12	Dinamo Zagabria	1	0.3	0.8	-0.5	1
13	Ararat-Armenia	1	1.9	2.5	-0.6	0
14	Omonia Nicosia	1	0.3	1.2	-0.9	3
15	Celje	1	0.9	1.9	-1.0	0
16	Sturm Graz	1	0.8	1.8	-1.0	1
17	AZ Alkmaar	1	1.5	2.9	-1.4	0
18	Jagiellonia	1	0.5	2.5	-2.0	0
19	Juventus	1	—	—	—	3
20	Crystal Palace	1	—	—	—	3
21	Beşiktaş	1	—	—	—	3
22	Union Saint-Gilloise	1	—	—	—	3
23	Ferencvárosi TC	1	—	—	—	3
24	OFI Creta	1	—	—	—	3
25	Bournemouth	1	—	—	—	3
26	SCU Torreense	1	—	—	—	3
27	Red Bull Salisburgo	1	—	—	—	3
28	Real Sociedad	1	—	—	—	0
29	Lillestrøm	1	—	—	—	0
30	Levski Sofia	1	—	—	—	0
31	Celtic	1	—	—	—	0
32	1899 Hoffenheim	1	—	—	—	0
33	Marsiglia	1	—	—	—	0
34	Viktoria Plzeň	1	—	—	—	0
35	Lech Poznań	1	—	—	—	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	—	—	—	0