Statistiche / Calcio / Colombia. Primera A Colombia / Jaguares de Córdoba vs Alianza Petrolera

Jaguares de Córdoba vs Alianza Petrolera Statistics & Analysis

Jaguares de Córdoba Jaguares de Córdoba
Sep 27, 2026 - 21:00
1 0.99
2 1.41
xG Accuracy: 85%
Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) No Sì ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-0 1-2 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10112094

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Alianza Petrolera win · Jaguares de Córdoba 1–2 Alianza Petrolera
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera A Colombia
  • Fixture: Jaguares de Córdoba vs Alianza Petrolera
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.8% · Draw 30.2% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Jaguares de Córdoba 0.99 — Alianza Petrolera 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.4)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 57.0% · Over 2.5 43.0%); BTTS No (Yes 49.1% · No 50.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.1% · No 50.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (12.8%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera A Colombia Primera A Colombia — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Atlético Nacional 19 13 1 5 40
2 Junior 19 11 2 6 35
3 Deportivo Pasto 19 10 4 5 34
4 América de Cali 19 10 3 6 33
5 Once Caldas 19 8 9 2 33
6 Deportes Tolima 19 8 7 4 31
7 Santa Fe 19 7 8 4 29
8 La Equidad 19 7 7 5 28
9 Deportivo Cali 19 7 6 6 27
10 Millonarios 19 7 5 7 26
11 Independiente Medellín 19 7 5 7 26
12 Rionegro Águilas 19 7 5 7 26
13 Atlético Bucaramanga 19 5 8 6 23
14 Llaneros 19 4 10 5 22
15 Fortaleza FC 19 5 7 7 22
16 Jaguares de Córdoba 19 5 3 11 18
17 Alianza Petrolera 19 3 8 8 17
18 Chico FC 19 5 2 12 17
19 Cúcuta Deportivo 19 3 7 9 16
20 Deportivo Pereira 19 1 7 11 10
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Atlético Nacional 19 35 15 +20 40
2 Once Caldas 19 31 22 +9 33
3 Millonarios 19 31 23 +8 26
4 Junior 19 31 24 +7 35
5 Santa Fe 19 29 22 +7 29
6 Deportivo Pasto 19 29 25 +4 34
7 Deportes Tolima 19 27 17 +10 31
8 Atlético Bucaramanga 19 26 20 +6 23
9 Independiente Medellín 19 26 24 +2 26
10 La Equidad 19 26 26 0 28
11 América de Cali 19 25 15 +10 33
12 Fortaleza FC 19 22 27 -5 22
13 Cúcuta Deportivo 19 22 35 -13 16
14 Deportivo Cali 19 20 16 +4 27
15 Rionegro Águilas 19 20 25 -5 26
16 Jaguares de Córdoba 19 20 33 -13 18
17 Llaneros 19 17 20 -3 22
18 Chico FC 19 15 32 -17 17
19 Deportivo Pereira 19 15 32 -17 10
20 Alianza Petrolera 19 13 27 -14 17
# SQUADRA PG xG xGC +/- PT
1 América de Cali 19 9.1 4.4 +4.7 33
2 Rionegro Águilas 19 8.9 4.5 +4.4 26
3 Millonarios 19 7.8 4.3 +3.5 26
4 Atlético Nacional 19 6.6 3.5 +3.1 40
5 Deportes Tolima 19 6.8 4.2 +2.6 31
6 Deportivo Cali 19 5.4 3.1 +2.3 27
7 Once Caldas 19 4.2 3.4 +0.8 33
8 Chico FC 19 4.8 5.0 -0.2 17
9 Independiente Medellín 19 3.5 3.7 -0.2 26
10 Junior 19 3.6 4.3 -0.7 35
11 Santa Fe 19 4.0 5.1 -1.1 29
12 Alianza Petrolera 19 6.0 7.3 -1.3 17
13 Cúcuta Deportivo 19 5.2 6.6 -1.4 16
14 Atlético Bucaramanga 19 3.4 5.0 -1.6 23
15 Deportivo Pereira 19 4.3 6.0 -1.7 10
16 Fortaleza FC 19 3.4 5.4 -2.0 22
17 La Equidad 19 3.9 6.1 -2.2 28
18 Deportivo Pasto 19 4.5 7.0 -2.5 34
19 Jaguares de Córdoba 19 2.8 5.8 -3.0 18
20 Llaneros 19 3.1 6.5 -3.4 22
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