Real Cartagena vs Independiente Yumbo Statistics & Analysis

Real Cartagena

Aug 07, 2026 - 01:10

0 1.38

2 1.22

xG Accuracy: 55%

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Independiente Yumbo

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Real Cartagena Independiente Yumbo ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2666530

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Independiente Yumbo win · Real Cartagena 0–2 Independiente Yumbo

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Primera B Colombia
Fixture: Real Cartagena vs Independiente Yumbo
Kickoff: 2026-08-07 01:10:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Real Cartagena 1.38 — Independiente Yumbo 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Primera B Colombia — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Internacional Palmira	30	16	8	6	56
2	Real Cartagena	32	15	9	8	54
3	Envigado	32	15	9	8	54
4	Quindío	30	14	9	7	51
5	Unión Magdalena	29	14	6	9	48
6	Tigres FC	31	11	9	11	42
7	Bogotá FC	30	9	10	11	37
8	Independiente Yumbo	24	9	9	6	36
9	Patriotas	25	9	7	9	34
10	Barranquilla	31	9	7	15	34
11	Real Soacha	25	8	9	8	33
12	Popayán	24	6	9	9	27
13	Orsomarso	23	6	8	9	26
14	Depor FC	25	5	8	12	23
15	Real Santander	25	3	10	12	19
16	Leones FC	24	4	7	13	19

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Real Cartagena	32	50	35	+15	54
2	Envigado	32	43	28	+15	54
3	Unión Magdalena	29	40	28	+12	48
4	Internacional Palmira	30	39	27	+12	56
5	Barranquilla	31	36	42	-6	34
6	Quindío	30	31	21	+10	51
7	Tigres FC	31	31	26	+5	42
8	Real Soacha	25	31	28	+3	33
9	Patriotas	25	30	33	-3	34
10	Popayán	24	29	31	-2	27
11	Bogotá FC	30	25	31	-6	37
12	Depor FC	25	24	38	-14	23
13	Independiente Yumbo	24	23	17	+6	36
14	Real Santander	25	21	38	-17	19
15	Orsomarso	23	17	23	-6	26
16	Leones FC	24	15	39	-24	19